Game Recap: MIN 2, COL 5, May 5, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

FinalTue, May 5, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL5

COL beat MIN 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.41 expected goals to 3.07. MIN outshot COL 31 to 23. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Hartman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Wedgewood stopped 29 of 31.

Team Stats

MINCOL

31Shots on goal23

3.07Expected goals2.41

65Shot attempts49

185v5 shots on goal13

0/2Power play2/5

31Hits28

13Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways14

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.07 xGCOL 2.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN29 on goal, 2 scored

COL21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	-1	2	23:12	3:16
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	2	19:04	2:47
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	5	2	1	-1	2	18:21	2:41
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	12:20	1:23
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	10:04	0:53
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:53	2:37
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	15:48	0:26
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	12:57	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	11:25	0:44
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:04	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	0	28:31	0:44
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	28:07	3:16
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:56	1:13
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	18:09	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	9:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	22	18	4	.818	57:08	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	5	2	0	0	0	22:06	5:47
G. Landeskog	LW	1	1	2	1	4	0	0	0	19:54	5:53
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	19:02	5:47
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	4	18:42	1:54
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	17:56	1:57
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	15:24	5:50
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:37	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	9:29	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:29	1:52
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	10:05	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:02	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:57	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+1	0	21:04	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	17:36	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:06	5:40
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	23:26	2:05
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	20:57	1:55
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov17:42M. Zuccarello14:03R. Hartman13:26

Line 2M. McCarron11:15Y. Trenin11:30V. Tarasenko10:16

Line 3M. Johansson10:25M. Boldy12:58D. Yurov8:42

Line 4M. Foligno9:14N. Sturm9:25N. Foligno7:14

Pair 1Q. Hughes21:59B. Faber19:52

Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:10J. Middleton15:29

Pair 3J. Petry9:28D. Hunt8:52

COL

Line 1M. Necas13:15N. MacKinnon14:42A. Lehkonen14:58

Line 2B. Nelson14:37V. Nichushkin13:09G. Landeskog12:17

Line 3N. Roy9:37R. Colton9:29N. Kadri9:34

Line 4P. Kelly8:04L. O'Connor8:37J. Drury7:48

Pair 1D. Toews17:34C. Makar15:56

Pair 2B. Kulak18:31S. Malinski18:23

Pair 3B. Burns13:59N. Blankenburg6:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, COL 3.7	MIN 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	MIN 27.0, COL 34.9	MIN 31, COL 23
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	5	1.40	3	39%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	1	0.91	0	34%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	4	1.04	1	41%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	1	1.02	0	25%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.05	2	29%	1
COL S. Malinski	2.4	1	0.50	0	11%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	5	0.52	1	23%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.3	4	0.64	1	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	1	0.78	2	28%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	0	0.92	0	12%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	0	0.67	1	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	0	0.66	0	27%	0
COL B. Burns	2.1	1	0.38	1	10%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	1	0.63	1	26%	1
COL D. Toews	2.0	1	0.63	0	13%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	3	0.71	1	20%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.9	2	0.46	0	10%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	2	0.47	0	20%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	0	0.33	1	15%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.24	2	5%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	4	0.41	1	14%	1
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.21	0	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.32	0	14%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	1	0.28	0	10%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	1	0.28	0	11%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	1	0.37	1	14%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	2	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.23	0	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.9	2	0.27	1	12%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.9	0	0.21	0	6%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.7	1	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.7	1	0.16	1	2%	0
MIN J. Petry	0.6	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.