Game Recap: MIN 3, COL 4 (OT), May 13, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MIN3

Final/OTWed, May 13, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL4

COL beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 1.90. COL outshot MIN 34 to 20. N. Foligno led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. MacKinnon had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.0. S. Wedgewood stopped 7 of 7.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	3	0	0	0	3
COL	0	1	2	1	4

1st 0:34MINM. Johansson0.10 xG
1st 11:03MINN. Foligno0.09 xG
1st 15:56MINN. Foligno0.26 xG
2nd 11:00COLP. Kelly0.06 xG
3rd 16:27COLJ. Drury0.10 xG
3rd 18:37COLN. MacKinnon0.08 xG
OT 3:52COLB. Kulak0.10 xG

Team Stats

MINCOL

20Shots on goal34

1.90Expected goals3.41

45Shot attempts87

165v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play0/1

31Hits32

23Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways11

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 1.90 xGCOL 3.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN19 on goal, 3 scored

COL33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	0	2	2	5	3	0	-1	0	22:55	1:05
N. Sturm	C	0	2	2	2	2	1	+1	0	12:54	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	2	0	2	3	3	1	0	0	12:45	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	22:36	1:07
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:15	0:55
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	18:57	1:12
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:34	1:08
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:31	0:16
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:08	0:37
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:34	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	5	2	-1	0	11:59	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:03	0:52
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	30:35	1:06
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	32:06	0:54
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	22:48	0:48
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-2	0	21:55	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:13	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	34	30	4	.882	63:21	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	3	1	1	+2	0	23:17	2:00
P. Kelly	C	1	1	2	1	6	1	+1	0	11:09	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	23:01	2:00
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	14:33	0:00
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+3	0	12:02	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	2	24:44	2:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:30	2:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:17	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	15:32	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	-1	0	13:05	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:56	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	9:42	0:00
B. Kulak	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	26:54	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	2	2	3	2	0	+2	0	19:47	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	29:45	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	25:50	2:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:19	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	3:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	13	10	3	.769	20:00
S. Wedgewood	7	7	0	1.000	43:14	Win

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello17:45K. Kaprizov20:58R. Hartman17:26

Line 2M. McCarron15:19M. Boldy20:03M. Johansson14:49

Line 3Y. Trenin12:34V. Tarasenko10:11D. Yurov12:31

Line 4N. Foligno11:32M. Foligno11:21N. Sturm11:32

Pair 1Q. Hughes28:58B. Faber29:06

Pair 2J. Spurgeon21:07J. Middleton20:10

Pair 3J. Petry9:03D. Hunt9:10

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog21:35N. MacKinnon19:52M. Necas20:08

Line 2N. Kadri13:52V. Nichushkin14:42L. O'Connor12:56

Line 3R. Colton13:05B. Nelson14:49N. Roy14:33

Line 4P. Kelly9:59J. Kiviranta9:42J. Drury10:52

Pair 1D. Toews27:46C. Makar22:49

Pair 2B. Burns18:11B. Kulak26:22

Pair 3J. Manson18:47J. Ahcan3:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, COL 3.7	MIN 3, COL 4
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	MIN 26.7, COL 34.9	MIN 20, COL 34
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	9	1.45	1	41%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	5	0.89	2	33%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	0	1.05	1	41%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	0	1.05	0	26%	0
COL M. Necas	2.8	3	1.11	2	31%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.6	3	0.58	0	24%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.6	1	0.70	0	25%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	4	0.86	0	30%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.1	2	0.93	1	12%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	0	0.65	0	28%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	2	0.63	0	26%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	0	0.71	0	20%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	3	0.36	2	10%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.9	0	0.49	0	11%	0
COL D. Toews	1.9	0	0.59	1	12%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.6	1	0.42	0	18%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	3	0.30	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.30	0	6%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.24	2	5%	1
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	1	0.37	1	13%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.28	2	12%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	0	0.27	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	1	0.33	1	13%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	1	0.28	0	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	4	0.25	1	9%	1
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	3	0.23	2	9%	2
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	2	0.17	2	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.16	0	2%	0
MIN J. Petry	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.