MIN beat DET 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.70 expected goals to 4.39. MIN outshot DET 39 to 30. M. Boldy led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rasmussen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. M. Fleury stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 7:54DETA. DeBrincat0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:41DETD. LarkinPP0.73 xG
- 2nd 8:05MINV. HinostrozaPP0.83 xG
- 3rd 0:22DETL. RaymondPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:07MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:29MINM. Foligno0.23 xG
- OT 3:35MINM. Rossi0.31 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 4.70 xGDET 4.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 23:36 | 2:56 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:28 | 2:56 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 2:56 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 2:56 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 30:05 | 2:56 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 62:31 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 5:05 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:55 | 5:05 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 3:59 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 4:30 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:32 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:55 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:37 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:18 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:55 | 1:01 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:01 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:55 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25:18 | 5:22 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:05 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:49 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:32 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, DET 3.1 | MIN 4, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.0, DET 30.5 | MIN 39, DET 30 |
| Win chance | DET 55% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 3.4 | 2 | 0.96 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 5 | 0.72 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 6 | 0.82 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 2.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 5 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.4 | 7 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.