MIN beat EDM 5-3, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 2.20. F. Gaudreau led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Middleton had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. M. Fleury stopped 28 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.60 xGEDM 2.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gaudreau | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:43 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:57 | 1:17 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 1:09 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:45 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16:02 | 1:10 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:11 | 1:15 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:51 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:10 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:50 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:50 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:47 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 2:48 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 | 2:41 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:28 | 2:46 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:17 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:12 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:45 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:14 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Caggiula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:46 | 1:37 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 | 2:15 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:17 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:08 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Brown | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 57:32 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.7, EDM 3.2 | MIN 5, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 25.5, EDM 31.4 | MIN 26, EDM 31 |
| Win chance | EDM 59% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 4 | 1.58 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.2 | 1 | 1.21 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.8 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.7 | 3 | 1.31 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.3 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.1 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 3 | 14% | 2 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 4 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM J. Brown | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.8 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM D. Caggiula | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.