Game Recap: MIN 1, EDM 0, December 2, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalTue, Dec 2, 2025Every game that night

EDM0

MIN beat EDM 1-0, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 2.30. EDM outshot MIN 33 to 24. M. Zuccarello had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Wallstedt stopped 33 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	1	0	0	1
EDM	0	0	0	0

1st 13:11MINJ. Brodin0.01 xG

Team Stats

MINEDM

24Shots on goal33

2.96Expected goals2.30

50Shot attempts70

185v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play0/3

25Hits19

20Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways17

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.96 xGEDM 2.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN23 on goal, 1 scored

EDM32 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	16:21	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:14	2:44
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	19:59	2:41
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	4	18:58	1:16
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	18:45	2:42
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:29	2:43
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:59	1:17
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	15:09	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:46	1:19
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:39	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	6:21	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	5:17	0:00
J. Brodin	D	1	0	1	1	0	4	+1	0	25:46	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	25:39	1:22
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	19:13	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:40	1:18
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:29	2:38
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	33	33	0	1.000	60:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	-1	0	23:24	4:17
L. Draisaitl	C	3	0	0	-1	0	22:58	4:14
Z. Hyman	LW	4	2	0	-1	0	20:49	4:01
V. Podkolzin	RW	2	5	1	0	0	17:52	0:42
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	3	0	0	0	0	17:45	4:03
M. Janmark	C	0	1	0	0	0	14:43	0:00
A. Henrique	C	3	0	0	0	0	14:29	0:42
A. Mangiapane	LW	3	2	0	0	0	14:26	0:24
M. Savoie	C	1	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:39
C. Lazar	C	0	1	2	0	0	8:45	0:00
T. Frederic	C	2	2	0	0	0	8:30	0:00
C. Clattenburg	C	0	1	0	0	0	4:41	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	3	0	1	-1	0	25:46	4:09
M. Ekholm	D	4	0	1	-1	0	21:49	0:28
D. Nurse	D	1	2	3	0	2	19:12	0:33
T. Emberson	D	1	3	2	0	2	16:39	0:00
B. Kulak	D	1	0	0	0	0	16:35	0:00
A. Regula	D	1	0	2	0	0	16:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	24	23	1	.958	58:21	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman17:42M. Zuccarello16:03K. Kaprizov18:30

Line 2J. Ek13:54M. Boldy14:47M. Johansson12:34

Line 3Y. Trenin14:27N. Sturm12:20V. Tarasenko12:27

Line 4T. Pitlick6:21B. Jones6:39L. Ohgren5:17

Pair 1J. Brodin20:50B. Faber19:16

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:38J. Middleton18:35

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:34Z. Buium13:51

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:51C. McDavid18:10M. Savoie11:35

Line 2L. Draisaitl17:47V. Podkolzin15:19A. Mangiapane14:02

Line 3A. Henrique12:56M. Janmark12:55R. Nugent-Hopkins11:24

Line 4C. Lazar7:27T. Frederic8:30C. Clattenburg4:41

Pair 1M. Ekholm19:04E. Bouchard19:23

Pair 2D. Nurse17:13A. Regula14:39

Pair 3B. Kulak15:23T. Emberson15:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCalvin Pickard MIN Faces EDM, his team until Jan 20260 saves on 0
HometownJared Spurgeon MIN Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, EDM 3.2	MIN 1, EDM 0
Total goals	6.1	1
Shots on goal	MIN 26.2, EDM 32.0	MIN 24, EDM 33
Win chance	EDM 57%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	2	1.27	0	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	1	0.96	0	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.74	0	27%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	3	0.90	0	16%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	1	1.40	0	35%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	3	1.28	0	43%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	4	0.71	0	34%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	1	0.36	0	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	4	0.45	0	9%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	2	0.50	0	20%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	6	0.84	0	22%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	3	0.72	0	22%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.6	3	0.42	0	20%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	0	0.38	0	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	2	0.37	0	14%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.5	3	0.49	0	19%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	1	0.52	0	17%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.5	1	0.29	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	1	0.21	0	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	3	0.32	0	15%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.32	1	7%	1
MIN L. Ohgren	1.1	0	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	2	0.21	0	12%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.9	1	0.08	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.9	0	0.05	0	5%	0
MIN Z. Buium	0.8	2	0.36	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.18	1	9%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	3	0.15	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	0	0.16	0	7%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.6	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.