MIN beat EDM 7-3, with the chances close: 4.55 expected goals to 4.30. EDM outshot MIN 42 to 29. M. Zuccarello led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Bouchard had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Wallstedt stopped 39 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| EDM | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:16EDML. Draisaitl0.13 xG
- 1st 6:15MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.17 xG
- 1st 8:01EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.07 xG
- 1st 19:24MINK. KaprizovPP0.61 xG
- 2nd 0:35MINM. Zuccarello0.02 xG
- 2nd 12:29MINQ. Hughes0.13 xG
- 2nd 15:40MINV. Tarasenko0.09 xG
- 3rd 9:42MINT. Pitlick0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:43EDMJ. Roslovic0.18 xG
- 3rd 14:17MINB. Faber0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 4.55 xGEDM 4.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:21 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:18 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:30 | 1:20 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:20 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:04 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:05 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:07 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 2 | 25:50 | 0:56 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 25:14 | 1:29 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:01 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:04 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 42 | 39 | 3 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 22:28 | 3:54 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:15 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:22 | 3:58 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:06 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:33 | 3:56 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:02 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:42 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:41 | 3:52 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:04 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:11 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
EDM
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.2, EDM 3.6 | MIN 7, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.0, EDM 32.4 | MIN 29, EDM 42 |
| Win chance | EDM 57% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.7 | 3 | 1.64 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 3 | 1.22 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 3.1 | 9 | 0.99 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.0 | 5 | 1.44 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.6 | 1 | 0.65 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 5 | 0.86 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 4 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM S. Stastney | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.