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Game Recap
MIN3
Final/OTTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night
EDM4

EDM beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.75 expected goals to 4.52. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Eriksson Ek had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. D. Levi stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
MIN10203
EDM12014
  1. 1st 3:32MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.29 xG
  2. 1st 19:57EDML. DraisaitlPP0.19 xG
  3. 2nd 1:03EDML. DraisaitlPP0.19 xG
  4. 2nd 6:01EDMM. Joseph0.28 xG
  5. 3rd 10:30MINK. Kaprizov0.18 xG
  6. 3rd 13:07MINR. Hartman0.26 xG
  7. OT 3:32EDME. BouchardPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

MINEDM
30Shots on goal32
4.52Expected goals4.75
58Shot attempts56
285v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play3/5
18Hits18
10Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways15
2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 4.52 xGEDM 4.75 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTMIN goal, 3:32EDM goal, 19:57EDM goal, 1:03EDM goal, 6:01MIN goal, 10:30MIN goal, 13:07EDM goal, 3:32

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN29 on goal, 3 scored
EDM32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BoldyLW022310+1222:313:14
K. KaprizovLW112300+2021:493:51
J. Eriksson EkC1018000022:453:10
B. BrinkRW011101+1013:452:05
R. HartmanRW1011200212:291:24
B. ColemanLW000000+1017:352:05
D. YurovRW000000+1014:552:02
M. ShabanovRW0001110014:263:07
Y. TreninC0000620014:170:00
M. McCarronC0005300013:360:00
N. SturmC0000000010:100:00
T. PitlickC000030005:160:00
Q. HughesD011300+3031:184:52
J. BrodinD011301+2228:130:26
Z. BogosianD000101-1021:160:04
D. HuntD0000010018:020:00
M. KierstedD0000220010:540:00
D. SpacekD0001010210:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Wallstedt32284.87563:32OT loss
C. Pickard000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC033421-2025:316:20
L. DraisaitlC202400-2024:066:30
V. PodkolzinRW011010-2019:204:24
A. FormentonLW0113200013:220:15
O. MichaelsRW0111010013:130:22
M. JosephRW1011200212:280:20
Z. HymanLW0003200023:076:33
K. KapanenRW0000300019:181:42
C. DachC0004110015:251:16
I. HowardLW000200007:411:15
T. FredericC000111007:371:00
F. HallanderC000000006:550:00
E. BouchardD112300-1028:176:53
R. SheaD000105-1023:501:06
C. MurphyD0000420221:120:03
M. EkholmD0001010220:360:23
J. WalmanD000101-1013:510:00
T. EmbersonD000300-1010:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi30273.90063:28Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:53M. Boldy17:15J. Ek16:07
Line 2B. Coleman12:35B. Brink11:40R. Hartman11:05
Line 3D. Yurov11:52M. Shabanov10:25Y. Trenin13:09
Line 4M. McCarron9:15N. Sturm8:57T. Pitlick5:16
Pair 1J. Brodin22:36Q. Hughes25:01
Pair 2Z. Bogosian15:06D. Hunt15:23
Pair 3M. Kiersted9:50D. Spacek8:45

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl16:16C. McDavid16:12V. Podkolzin14:52
Line 2Z. Hyman16:02K. Kapanen14:33C. Dach14:09
Line 3M. Joseph11:03A. Formenton10:59O. Michaels10:02
Line 4T. Frederic6:37I. Howard6:26F. Hallander6:55
Pair 1C. Murphy19:09R. Shea18:31
Pair 2M. Ekholm18:10E. Bouchard19:06
Pair 3J. Walman11:44T. Emberson10:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5+130-1654Over
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+125-1603Under
EDM L. Draisaitl3.5+125-1504Over
MIN M. Boldy3.5+114-1153Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-145+1303Over
MIN J. Ek2.5-104-1058Over
MIN Q. Hughes2.5+125-1353Over
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+110-1400Under
EDM Z. Hyman2.5+125-1353Over
MIN B. Brink1.5+125-1751Under
MIN B. Coleman1.5-150+1300Under
EDM C. Murphy1.5+125-1600Under
MIN D. Yurov1.5+120-1700Under
EDM J. Walman1.5-125-1051Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5+100-1250Under
EDM M. Ekholm1.5-125-1051Under
MIN M. Shabanov1.5+125-1651Under
MIN R. Hartman1.5-105-1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMIN 3.2, EDM 3.3MIN 3, EDM 4
Total goals6.57
Shots on goalMIN 27.6, EDM 29.5MIN 30, EDM 32
Win chanceEDM 51%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.531.06237%0
EDM C. McDavid3.341.55338%0
MIN K. Kaprizov3.031.19243%1
MIN J. Ek2.980.78128%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.831.09220%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.741.32240%2
EDM Z. Hyman2.530.80035%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.200.67125%0
MIN B. Coleman2.100.48021%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.130.99114%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.900.54020%0
MIN R. Hartman1.810.47120%1
EDM A. Formenton1.830.38117%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.610.51011%0
EDM J. Walman1.610.34010%0
MIN J. Brodin1.330.3217%0
MIN M. Shabanov1.310.48015%0
MIN B. Brink1.210.41115%0
MIN M. McCarron1.250.26011%0
EDM C. Murphy1.200.2808%0
EDM F. Hallander1.200.28010%0
MIN D. Yurov1.200.38016%0
EDM I. Howard1.220.2208%0
EDM O. Michaels1.110.34114%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.100.27011%0
EDM C. Dach1.140.24010%0
EDM T. Frederic1.110.20011%0
EDM R. Shea1.010.4309%0
EDM M. Joseph1.010.31110%1
MIN D. Spacek0.910.1203%0
MIN Z. Bogosian0.810.1704%0
MIN M. Kiersted0.800.2004%0
MIN T. Pitlick0.800.1206%0
MIN N. Sturm0.800.2008%0
MIN D. Hunt0.700.1602%0
EDM T. Emberson0.630.1503%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.