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Game Recap
MIN3
FLA2
MIN beat FLA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 1.59. MIN outshot FLA 50 to 20. M. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Ekblad had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Wallstedt stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 2nd 2:47MINM. Foligno0.16 xG
- 2nd 18:25MINR. Hartman0.01 xG
- 3rd 0:42FLAM. Tkachuk0.10 xG
- 3rd 18:47FLAA. Ekblad0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:55MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.03 xG
Team Stats
MINFLA
50Shots on goal20
3.68Expected goals1.59
73Shot attempts54
505v5 shots on goal16
0/1Power play0/1
15Hits21
20Blocked shots9
2Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways13
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.68 xGFLA 1.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:28 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 1:04 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 1:32 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:33 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:27 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:27 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:33 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:56 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:53 | 0:25 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:55 | 1:35 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:37 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:42 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:35 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:36 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:18 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:25 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:24 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:23 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:53 | 1:35 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:06 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 50 | 47 | 3 | .940 | 58:10 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello15:08K. Kaprizov16:44R. Hartman14:22
Line 2J. Ek12:29M. Boldy12:54V. Tarasenko12:37
Line 3B. Brink13:43M. McCarron14:40M. Johansson13:05
Line 4N. Foligno12:37Y. Trenin12:19M. Foligno11:43
Pair 1Q. Hughes25:20J. Spurgeon13:41
Pair 3J. Petry14:33J. Middleton14:42
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:45M. Tkachuk14:52S. Bennett14:50
Line 2V. Hinostroza18:22C. Reinhardt15:29T. Nosek15:50
Line 3J. Boqvist15:26E. Luostarinen13:39N. Gregor13:37
Pair 1D. Kulikov20:03S. Jones18:28
Pair 2A. Ekblad19:25G. Forsling19:38
Pair 3D. Sebrango16:26M. Benning14:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.0, FLA 3.0 | MIN 3, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.0, FLA 29.6 | MIN 50, FLA 20 |
| Win chance | MIN 50% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.1 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 0 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 4 | 0.96 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.5 | 5 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 5 | 1.09 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 5 | 0.48 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN B. Brink | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA N. Foote | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA C. Reinhardt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 0.9 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 0.8 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Petry | 0.7 | 4 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA M. Benning | 0.7 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.