Game Recap: MIN 4, FLA 1, October 10, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN4

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

FLA1

MIN beat FLA 4-1, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 3.05. K. Kaprizov scored three for MIN. A. Lundell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Wallstedt stopped 29 of 30.

Team Stats

MINFLA

29Shots on goal30

3.62Expected goals3.05

54Shot attempts58

215v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play0/5

24Hits30

12Blocked shots4

29Penalty minutes25

21Giveaways15

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.62 xGFLA 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN26 on goal, 3 scored

FLA30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	3	1	4	4	0	2	+2	0	20:11	3:02
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	2	20:56	3:03
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	6	18:12	1:48
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	13:27	2:59
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	4	16:36	1:24
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:08	1:23
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	13:43	1:52
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	12:51	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:36	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	5	11:36	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	10:51	1:27
R. Lorenz	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	10	7:12	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	25:35	3:06
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	24:40	1:20
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	23:16	0:46
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	21:33	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:48	0:00
D. Spacek	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	9:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	30	29	1	.967	59:58	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	4	3	0	-1	2	18:33	5:08
S. Bennett	C	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	20:50	5:16
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:14	6:29
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:36	6:23
A. Lundell	C	0	0	6	1	0	-1	2	19:22	5:30
L. Eller	C	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:06	2:58
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	17:34	4:40
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	15:04	3:18
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:33	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	10	9:51	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:30	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	3	2	0	0	5	7:31	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	23:06	6:27
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	21:19	3:44
G. Forsling	D	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:15	0:06
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:53	0:01
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:22	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	28	25	3	.893	57:46	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1J. Ek15:25M. Boldy16:01K. Kaprizov15:35

Line 2B. Coleman12:56R. Hartman11:47M. Shabanov10:24

Line 3D. Yurov9:52B. Brink9:22R. Lorenz7:10

Line 4Y. Trenin8:51N. Sturm6:27M. McCarron5:41

Pair 1J. Spurgeon16:37Q. Hughes21:41

Pair 2O. Maatta15:38J. Brodin15:24

Pair 3D. Hunt8:37D. Spacek9:02

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett14:11M. Tkachuk12:03C. Verhaeghe11:52

Line 2A. Lundell11:56E. Luostarinen10:43S. Vilmanis11:50

Line 3S. Reinhart11:29B. Tkachuk11:21L. Eller11:52

Line 4S. Lafferty8:32B. Imama7:31G. Hathaway7:27

Pair 1D. Kulikov14:02R. Gudas13:51

Pair 2A. Ekblad14:13G. Forsling15:29

Pair 3S. Jones13:20N. Mikkola14:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 14 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+135	-160	1	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+132	-170	4	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+125	-152	4	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+114	-140	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	+125	-125	3	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-146	+125	4	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+142	-160	3	Over
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	-108	-110	2	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	-104	-120	2	Under
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-140	+125	6	Over
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-152	+135	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	+120	-155	1	Under
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-135	+105	4	Over
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-115	+100	3	Over

3 of 34 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+410	-475	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+190	-240	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+2800	-10000	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+2300	-5000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+2300	-5000	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+155	-180	3	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
FLA R. Gudas	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+420	-475	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+625	-1200	0	Under
FLA S. Lafferty	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+220	-220	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+180	-225	1	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+240	-340	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+115	-130	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+125	-135	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+250	-325	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+112	-125	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-150	+120	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+300	-375	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+172	-200	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+132	-170	0	Under

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+190	-245	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-145	+120	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-105	-111	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+200	-270	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-210	+190	4	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-165	+160	2	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-190	+160	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-175	+160	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+160	-170	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+102	-115	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-160	+135	0	Under

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+250	-275	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+170	-215	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+210	-215	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+195	-190	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+195	-215	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+290	-300	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
FLA J. Markstrom	23.5	-110	-102	25	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-125	-110	1	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	-140	+100	1	Under
MIN O. Maatta	1.5	-105	-130	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.1, FLA 3.1	MIN 4, FLA 1
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	MIN 27.2, FLA 29.1	MIN 29, FLA 30
Win chance	MIN 50%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	1	0.81	0	30%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	4	1.03	2	35%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	4	1.18	1	34%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.0	4	1.19	4	43%	3
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	2	0.84	0	31%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	3	0.76	1	27%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	0	0.80	0	31%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	3	1.17	1	16%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.3	2	0.83	0	33%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	6	0.64	0	21%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.1	3	0.61	0	15%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.0	0	0.45	0	20%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.8	4	0.50	0	20%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	1	0.37	0	10%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	3	0.47	0	11%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.5	1	0.31	0	13%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	2	0.45	0	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.35	1	8%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.3	1	0.45	1	14%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	0	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.1	3	0.40	0	14%	0
MIN O. Maatta	1.1	0	0.34	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.9	2	0.31	0	13%	0
FLA R. Gudas	0.8	1	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
FLA S. Lafferty	0.6	0	0.15	0	8%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	1	0.16	0	2%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.6	3	0.08	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.