Game Recap: MIN 1, LAK 4, December 7, 2024

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalSat, Dec 7, 2024Every game that night

LAK4

LAK beat MIN 4-1, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 2.56. LAK outshot MIN 34 to 23. T. Moore led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Edmundson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Kuemper stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	0	1	1
LAK	1	1	2	4

1st 19:17LAKA. Kempe0.16 xG
2nd 8:33LAKA. LaferrierePP0.07 xG
3rd 18:06LAKT. MooreEN0.82 xG
3rd 18:47MINY. Trenin0.08 xG
3rd 18:55LAKT. MooreEN0.40 xG

Team Stats

MINLAK

23Shots on goal34

2.56Expected goals3.05

57Shot attempts68

185v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play1/2

20Hits19

22Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes9

17Giveaways10

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.56 xGLAK 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN23 on goal, 1 scored

LAK33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Trenin	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:54	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-3	0	22:30	2:48
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-3	2	21:15	3:01
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	19:58	2:47
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	17:19	0:31
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	16:17	0:27
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	5	15:15	2:49
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:48	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:03	0:19
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:13	0:00
R. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:04	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:15	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	14:10	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	+1	0	13:35	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	25:29	0:22
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	23:20	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	20:53	2:56
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	17:40	0:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	32	30	2	.938	57:55	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	3	3	2	+3	0	19:38	1:18
T. Moore	LW	2	0	2	2	0	1	+3	0	18:41	0:00
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	19:29	1:18
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	18:39	2:25
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:12	1:07
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	18:04	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:08	1:18
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	16:40	1:07
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	7	11:42	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:32	1:07
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	9:00	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	24:22	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	15:20	2:25
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	7	3	1	+1	0	23:26	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	22:42	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:56	0:00
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:10	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	7:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.6, LAK 2.9	MIN 1, LAK 4
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	MIN 25.2, LAK 29.5	MIN 23, LAK 34
Win chance	LAK 56%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.1	5	1.12	0	41%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	3	0.92	2	36%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.9	4	0.77	0	28%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.7	4	0.85	1	29%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.5	2	0.59	2	23%	2
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	5	0.51	0	22%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	2	0.51	1	23%	1
LAK B. Clarke	2.1	1	0.47	0	7%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.9	2	0.46	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	0	0.56	0	17%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	2	0.56	0	20%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	1	0.48	0	19%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	1	0.89	1	26%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.38	0	7%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	2	0.36	0	14%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	2	0.38	0	8%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	0	0.28	1	6%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.3	1	0.44	0	7%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.2	1	0.29	1	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.20	1	14%	1
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	7	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	1.0	3	0.25	0	13%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	0	0.27	0	9%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	1	0.33	0	14%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.14	1	3%	0
MIN R. Johnson	0.8	0	0.10	0	5%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	0	0.10	0	7%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.6	0	0.15	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	1	0.19	0	7%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	1	0.14	1	3%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	1	0.07	0	2%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.4	1	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.