Game Recap: MIN 4, LAK 5 (SO), January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN4

Final/SOSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

LAK5

LAK beat MIN 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.92 expected goals to 3.30. LAK outshot MIN 38 to 28. Q. Byfield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Kuemper stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MIN	1	1	2	0	4
LAK	1	1	2	1	5

1st 6:08LAKA. Kempe0.13 xG
1st 8:28MINJ. Middleton0.04 xG
2nd 16:57LAKC. PerryPP0.33 xG
2nd 18:23MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:54LAKQ. Byfield0.24 xG
3rd 7:33MINB. Faber0.07 xG
3rd 12:09LAKS. Helenius0.13 xG
3rd 17:03MINM. Boldy0.29 xG

Team Stats

MINLAK

28Shots on goal38

3.30Expected goals3.92

69Shot attempts81

195v5 shots on goal32

1/4Power play1/3

17Hits15

21Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.30 xGLAK 3.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN27 on goal, 4 scored

LAK36 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	23:59	5:01
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	23:12	5:01
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	22:48	4:53
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	19:32	4:54
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:21	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	12:47	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:00	0:52
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:11	0:45
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:35	0:44
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	10:49	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	8:34	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	1	2	3	1	6	0	4	23:20	0:26
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	29:05	5:22
J. Middleton	D	1	0	1	1	1	6	0	0	15:14	0:01
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	20:02	0:46
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	38	35	4	.921	64:11	OT loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	4	1	3	0	4	20:47	1:22
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	22:30	3:00
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	0	4	0	0	22:03	3:28
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	5	2	2	0	0	21:54	3:07
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	2	18:36	1:28
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	13:15	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	12:40	3:00
S. Helenius	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	4:34	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	17:39	1:27
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:02	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:59	1:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:42	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	17:46	1:33
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	24:09	1:23
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:52	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:42	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:14	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	28	24	4	.857	64:03	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello13:49D. Yurov13:34K. Kaprizov16:03

Line 2J. Ek13:29M. Boldy14:01M. Johansson13:12

Line 3R. Hartman12:58V. Tarasenko12:23V. Hinostroza8:06

Line 4M. Foligno11:34Y. Trenin10:02N. Sturm9:29

Pair 1B. Faber19:46Q. Hughes20:03

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:01J. Brodin16:11

Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:08J. Middleton13:46

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar16:27A. Kempe14:55A. Laferriere13:41

Line 2Q. Byfield15:42J. Armia13:18W. Foegele10:48

Line 3K. Fiala16:49A. Turcotte13:15A. Kuzmenko12:53

Line 4C. Perry9:18J. Malott6:53S. Helenius4:34

Pair 1D. Doughty19:56M. Anderson18:46

Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:44C. Ceci16:02

Pair 3B. Clarke14:16J. Edmundson13:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMats Zuccarello LAK First game against MIN since he left (his team until May 2026)1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.6, LAK 3.0	MIN 4, LAK 5
Total goals	5.6	9
Shots on goal	MIN 25.5, LAK 29.5	MIN 28, LAK 38
Win chance	LAK 57%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	1	1.00	1	38%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	4	0.75	1	30%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	5	0.84	1	33%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.8	5	0.81	1	29%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.6	5	0.60	1	22%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	2	0.50	1	21%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	2	0.76	1	10%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	4	0.63	2	21%	1
LAK B. Clarke	2.1	3	0.46	1	10%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	1	0.40	0	20%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.9	0	0.41	0	18%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.8	3	0.68	1	19%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.6	4	0.44	1	20%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.6	4	0.55	0	13%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.6	0	0.43	0	18%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	3	0.30	2	8%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	2	0.56	0	24%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	1	0.39	0	17%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	1	0.43	0	14%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	0	0.71	1	22%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.3	1	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	1	0.28	1	11%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	1	0.38	1	14%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	1	0.24	1	11%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	2	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.9	1	0.12	0	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	2	0.14	1	3%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.17	1	4%	1
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	1	0.10	1	5%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.