Game Recap: MIN 2, LAK 4, January 5, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

FinalMon, Jan 5, 2026Every game that night

LAK4

LAK beat MIN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.55 expected goals to 3.56. J. Spurgeon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Doughty had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Kuemper stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	0	2	2
LAK	0	2	2	4

2nd 15:34LAKW. Foegele0.04 xG
2nd 17:52LAKK. Fiala0.19 xG
3rd 5:55MINJ. Spurgeon0.03 xG
3rd 9:20LAKA. Kuzmenko0.35 xG
3rd 15:21MINR. HartmanPP0.23 xG
3rd 18:21LAKA. KempeEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

MINLAK

35Shots on goal33

3.56Expected goals4.55

71Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal29

1/6Power play0/1

22Hits10

19Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes14

14Giveaways20

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.56 xGLAK 4.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN35 on goal, 2 scored

LAK32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:43	4:07
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	11:16	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	25:06	7:31
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	21:01	6:05
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	20:58	7:18
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	5	0	3	-2	0	20:52	6:37
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	15:50	3:27
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:45	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	12:57	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	12:29	2:32
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	4	11:18	0:38
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:29	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	1	1	2	1	1	2	0	0	19:29	2:48
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	0	0	22:58	1:58
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	17:30	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	29:59	8:19
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	12:07	0:00
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	8:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	32	29	3	.906	57:42	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	2	13:33	1:01
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	2	22:18	1:47
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:05	1:57
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:57	0:03
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	16:46	0:01
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	4	16:42	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:21	0:13
J. Malott	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	10:00	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:57	1:59
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:14	0:00
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:54	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	16:20	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	4	24:36	0:11
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	2	22:54	0:59
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	21:34	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+2	0	17:17	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	17:05	1:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Foligno11:32Y. Trenin13:28N. Sturm10:34

Line 2M. Zuccarello11:57K. Kaprizov15:17D. Yurov10:40

Line 3J. Ek12:04M. Boldy10:21M. Johansson9:56

Line 4V. Tarasenko10:15R. Hartman11:36V. Hinostroza8:29

Pair 1Q. Hughes19:22B. Faber19:35

Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:36J. Brodin16:35

Pair 3J. Middleton11:22M. Kiersted8:31

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala15:14A. Turcotte12:58A. Kuzmenko12:32

Line 2W. Foegele11:22Q. Byfield14:29J. Armia6:01

Line 3A. Kempe12:55A. Laferriere12:21A. Kopitar4:36

Line 4C. Perry12:37S. Helenius11:21J. Malott9:39

Pair 1D. Doughty17:42M. Anderson19:07

Pair 2B. Clarke15:16J. Edmundson14:53

Pair 3B. Dumoulin11:47C. Ceci12:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMats Zuccarello LAK First game against MIN since he left (his team until May 2026)5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.7, LAK 2.9	MIN 2, LAK 4
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	MIN 26.1, LAK 29.7	MIN 35, LAK 33
Win chance	LAK 53%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	5	1.09	0	40%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	3	0.88	0	31%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	3	0.76	1	30%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	6	0.85	1	33%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.8	5	0.66	0	24%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	3	0.50	1	20%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.3	4	0.84	0	11%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	1	0.62	1	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.1	1	0.43	0	9%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	5	0.39	1	19%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	5	0.74	0	20%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.9	1	0.42	1	18%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.6	5	0.52	0	12%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.6	0	0.43	0	20%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	1	0.32	1	8%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.5	3	0.44	0	18%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	1	0.52	2	22%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	0	0.73	0	22%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	1	0.45	0	15%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.3	1	0.21	0	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	0	0.28	1	10%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	1	0.42	0	14%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	1	0.28	2	7%	1
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.0	1	0.26	1	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.22	2	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	0	0.20	1	9%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	2	0.11	1	8%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	1	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.