Game Recap: MIN 4, MTL 0, January 30, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MIN4

FinalThu, Jan 30, 2025Every game that night

MTL0

MIN beat MTL 4-0, with the chances close: 3.45 expected goals to 2.77. MIN outshot MTL 27 to 19. F. Gaudreau led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Anderson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. M. Fleury stopped 19 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	2	2	4
MTL	0	0	0	0

2nd 3:41MINL. Ohgren0.50 xG
2nd 5:47MINM. Rossi0.22 xG
3rd 5:56MIND. Shore0.19 xG
3rd 18:33MINF. GaudreauEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

MINMTL

27Shots on goal19

3.45Expected goals2.77

55Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal15

0/1Power play0/1

21Hits18

19Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes2

5Giveaways9

10Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.45 xGMTL 2.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN26 on goal, 4 scored

MTL19 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	16:05	1:08
F. Gaudreau	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+2	0	14:09	0:52
Y. Trenin	C	0	2	2	0	4	1	+2	0	12:30	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:18	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:58	0:52
L. Ohgren	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:21	0:52
D. Shore	C	1	0	1	1	3	3	+1	0	11:12	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	20:10	1:08
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:01	1:08
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	18:42	1:08
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:26	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+2	0	20:13	0:32
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:34	1:10
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	22:16	0:10
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	18:41	0:42
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:55	0:18
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	0	17:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	19	19	0	1.000	60:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	2	1	-1	0	20:27	1:01
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	-2	0	19:45	1:01
C. Caufield	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	18:48	1:02
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	1	-3	0	16:42	0:56
P. Laine	LW	1	1	0	-1	0	15:55	1:02
B. Gallagher	RW	2	2	0	-2	0	15:47	0:59
K. Dach	C	1	3	0	-1	2	14:51	0:57
J. Anderson	RW	5	0	0	0	0	14:48	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	-2	0	14:20	0:59
J. Evans	C	0	1	0	0	0	12:12	0:01
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	0	0	11:12	0:00
R. Harvey-Pinard	LW	0	1	0	0	0	8:54	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	2	-2	0	25:57	1:01
L. Hutson	D	3	1	1	-2	0	21:33	0:59
A. Carrier	D	1	3	0	-1	0	20:35	0:02
A. Xhekaj	D	1	2	0	-1	0	18:21	0:00
D. Savard	D	1	0	3	-1	0	16:05	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	-1	0	15:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	26	23	3	.885	56:12	Loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayArber Xhekaj MTL Turns 24 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.8, MTL 3.1	MIN 4, MTL 0
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	MIN 27.7, MTL 29.2	MIN 27, MTL 19
Win chance	MTL 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	3	0.86	0	31%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	2	0.82	0	33%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.2	3	0.75	0	29%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.6	3	0.96	0	26%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.6	1	0.77	0	30%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.2	0	0.62	0	11%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	0	0.92	0	28%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	1	0.45	1	20%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	1	0.63	2	24%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	2	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	1	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	0	0.46	0	20%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.6	1	0.60	0	19%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.5	1	0.45	0	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	1	0.40	1	9%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.5	0	0.36	0	8%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.4	3	0.36	2	16%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.4	2	0.49	0	9%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.4	2	0.25	1	11%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	5	0.33	0	17%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	3	0.76	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.3	1	0.36	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.2	1	0.17	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	1	0.38	1	17%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	2	0.27	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.43	0	14%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	0	0.19	2	12%	0
MTL R. Harvey-Pinard	0.9	0	0.34	0	17%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	1	0.26	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.16	1	6%	1
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.6	2	0.15	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.