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Game Recap
MIN3
MTL4
MTL beat MIN 4-3, with the chances close: 2.57 expected goals to 2.20. MTL outshot MIN 33 to 20. V. Tarasenko led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Carrier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Dobes stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| MTL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 10:44MINV. TarasenkoPP0.13 xG
- 1st 15:22MTLP. Danault0.33 xG
- 1st 19:08MTLA. Carrier0.04 xG
- 2nd 10:16MINB. Faber0.01 xG
- 2nd 12:35MTLL. Hutson0.04 xG
- 3rd 12:40MINV. TarasenkoPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:45MTLC. Caufield0.06 xG
Team Stats
MINMTL
20Shots on goal33
2.20Expected goals2.57
46Shot attempts74
155v5 shots on goal32
2/4Power play0/3
17Hits18
22Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways16
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.20 xGMTL 2.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:40 | 2:48 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:52 | 2:48 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:22 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20:44 | 2:48 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| H. Haight | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30:03 | 2:48 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:47 | 0:09 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:17 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Spacek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 58:54 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:51 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:10 | 2:55 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:53 |
| P. Danault | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:02 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:54 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:29 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:02 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:02 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:30 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 1:31 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 1:33 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 19:29 | 3:03 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:40 | 0:02 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:00 | 1:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1R. Hartman17:41K. Kaprizov18:10M. Zuccarello17:50
Line 2V. Tarasenko12:42Y. Trenin14:28D. Yurov11:27
Line 3M. Foligno11:56V. Hinostroza12:39H. Haight11:26
Line 4N. Sturm9:29B. Jones6:09T. Pitlick6:13
Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:23J. Middleton17:04
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki16:29C. Caufield15:44K. Dach15:17
Line 3O. Kapanen11:39I. Demidov11:50J. Slafkovský13:12
Line 4B. Gallagher9:33P. Danault11:55J. Anderson11:18
Pair 1M. Matheson20:07N. Dobson21:00
Pair 2A. Carrier14:01K. Guhle17:43
Pair 3L. Hutson16:19J. Struble11:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, MTL 3.3 | MIN 3, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.2, MTL 28.3 | MIN 20, MTL 33 |
| Win chance | MTL 54% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 1 | 1.22 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.6 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 5 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.5 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.