Game Recap: MIN 2, MTL 1 (OT), November 10, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

Final/OTTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night

MTL1

MIN beat MTL 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.91 expected goals to 3.58. L. Hutson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Wallstedt stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	0	0	1	1	2
MTL	0	0	1	0	1

3rd 2:53MINB. Brink0.31 xG
3rd 18:22MTLN. Suzuki0.13 xG
OT 0:21MINK. KaprizovPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

MINMTL

24Shots on goal28

2.91Expected goals3.58

55Shot attempts69

205v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play0/2

22Hits18

23Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways15

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.91 xGMTL 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN24 on goal, 2 scored

MTL26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	20:47	3:24
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:43	3:21
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	13:11	1:53
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:25	1:51
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:08	3:06
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:35	2:09
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	15:20	0:03
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:35	2:59
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	12:22	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	11:18	1:52
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	10:23	0:03
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:48	0:03
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	29:28	4:57
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	25:35	0:06
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	17:46	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	17:42	0:22
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:59	0:00
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	28	27	1	.964	60:21	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:16	2:37
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	16:04	2:35
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:33	2:34
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	17:23	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:47	2:34
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:16	1:26
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:05	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:57	1:07
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	4	12:39	0:19
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:34	1:25
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:06	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:17	1:04
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	26:47	2:44
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	23:16	1:16
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:17	0:19
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	20:00	0:00
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:16	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	11:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	24	22	2	.917	60:06	OT loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:07M. Boldy15:45J. Ek12:49

Line 2Y. Trenin11:54D. Yurov14:28M. Shabanov11:36

Line 3B. Coleman10:24B. Brink10:53M. McCarron11:41

Line 4N. Foligno9:38M. Foligno9:42R. Hartman9:26

Pair 1J. Brodin21:50Q. Hughes22:45

Pair 2O. Maatta15:36J. Spurgeon14:21

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:56M. Kiersted9:19

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský13:59N. Suzuki14:30C. Caufield12:22

Line 2A. Texier13:09Z. Bolduc12:58P. Danault12:34

Line 3C. Kreider11:09J. Anderson11:24J. Evans10:19

Line 4K. Dach11:24O. Kapanen9:13A. Newhook12:05

Pair 1L. Hutson22:53N. Dobson19:33

Pair 2A. Carrier14:38K. Guhle16:28

Pair 3A. Engstrom12:10A. Xhekaj10:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+140	-170	2	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+122	-148	1	Under
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	-105	-115	2	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-125	+110	2	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	+135	-152	1	Under
MTL N. Dobson	2.5	+165	-190	3	Over
MTL N. Suzuki	2.5	+130	-160	3	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+116	-145	1	Under
MTL A. Texier	1.5	+105	-134	3	Over
MIN B. Brink	1.5	+130	-155	5	Over
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-145	+130	1	Under
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	+100	-115	6	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	+100	-130	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	+135	-175	2	Over
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	-135	+115	0	Under

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
MTL A. Engstrom	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+550	-700	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+430	-800	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+260	-390	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+101	-125	1	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under
MIN M. Foligno	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+2500	–	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
MIN N. Foligno	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+215	-275	1	Over
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+460	-900	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+2000	-10000	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+525	-900	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+2800	-10000	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under

4 of 20 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+320	-375	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+150	-165	1	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+115	-150	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-120	-106	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-102	-115	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-110	-115	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+255	-350	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+170	-209	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-205	+155	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+310	-440	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+285	-325	0	Under

5 of 23 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+135	-170	1	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+180	-230	1	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+165	-213	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	-175	+145	1	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+160	-215	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+235	-340	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+235	-280	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-128	+110	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-128	+110	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-220	+176	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+114	-125	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+145	-170	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	-200	+160	1	Over
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+235	-340	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+150	-200	1	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+195	-225	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+140	-185	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MTL J. Fowler	25.5	-121	-105	22	Under
MIN J. Wallstedt	24.5	-110	-114	27	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MTL A. Carrier	2.5	+135	-190	3	Over
MIN J. Brodin	2.5	+140	-200	3	Over
MTL K. Guhle	1.5	-185	+130	1	Under
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	-160	+115	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneJuraj Slafkovský MTL Plays his 300th game1 SOG
MilestoneMichael McCarron MIN Plays his 400th game2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.3, MTL 3.1	MIN 2, MTL 1
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	MIN 29.2, MTL 26.8	MIN 24, MTL 28
Win chance	MIN 52%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.6	2	0.98	1	35%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.0	1	1.14	1	42%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.9	2	0.73	0	28%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	2	0.81	1	35%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	1	1.10	1	16%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.47	0	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	3	0.98	1	29%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	1	0.68	0	24%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	3	0.51	0	12%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	0	0.49	0	20%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.6	3	0.42	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	0	0.36	0	18%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	6	0.85	1	12%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	2	0.51	0	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	2	0.50	0	21%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	2	0.36	0	16%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	2	0.26	0	12%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	0	0.37	0	18%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	1	0.43	0	14%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.3	2	0.36	0	17%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	5	0.40	1	15%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	3	0.33	0	7%	0
MTL C. Kreider	1.3	1	0.44	0	20%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	1	0.38	0	8%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	0	0.29	0	5%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.37	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.35	0	7%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MIN O. Maatta	0.8	1	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	0.8	1	0.13	0	5%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.