Game Recap: MIN 6, NSH 5 (OT), February 4, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN6

Final/OTWed, Feb 4, 2026Every game that night

NSH5

MIN beat NSH 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.08 expected goals to 3.53. MIN outshot NSH 43 to 35. M. Boldy scored three for MIN. Y. Trenin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. F. Gustavsson stopped 30 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	3	1	1	1	6
NSH	3	1	1	0	5

1st 1:49MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
1st 3:39MINM. BoldyPP0.09 xG
1st 9:26NSHF. ForsbergPP0.65 xG
1st 12:58MINM. Boldy0.23 xG
1st 16:45NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
1st 18:21NSHE. Haula0.16 xG
2nd 0:41NSHL. Evangelista0.11 xG
2nd 16:06MINY. Trenin0.06 xG
3rd 15:14MINV. Tarasenko0.02 xG
3rd 15:48NSHR. Josi0.03 xG
OT 4:14MINJ. Spurgeon0.17 xG

Team Stats

MINNSH

43Shots on goal35

4.08Expected goals3.53

77Shot attempts62

405v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play2/3

26Hits14

12Blocked shots17

11Penalty minutes9

15Giveaways17

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 4.08 xGNSH 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN42 on goal, 6 scored

NSH35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	3	1	4	6	0	0	0	0	19:02	1:43
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	5	1	1	0	2	24:43	1:46
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:42	1:11
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:57	1:05
Y. Trenin	C	1	0	1	7	4	0	+2	0	16:22	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+2	0	15:43	1:03
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+2	0	15:14	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	2	18:54	0:22
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:28	0:26
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:27	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:19	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	8:09	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	-1	2	28:58	1:42
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	25:55	0:25
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+2	0	20:30	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	1	0	1	1	4	1	+2	0	18:49	0:57
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	14:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	35	30	5	.857	64:10	Win
C. Petersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	2	3	6	2	0	-1	2	20:00	2:29
R. O'Reilly	C	0	3	3	1	0	2	+1	2	19:48	1:58
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	19:53	2:27
J. Marchessault	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18:46	2:04
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:45	0:14
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:09	0:31
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	16:35	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:46	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:30	0:31
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:54	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:45	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:52	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	1	2	8	0	1	0	0	30:59	2:29
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:57	0:06
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	27:46	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:15	0:06
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	5	12:45	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	11:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	43	37	6	.860	63:54	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello17:40R. Hartman18:32K. Kaprizov20:22

Line 2Y. Trenin15:03D. Yurov14:58V. Tarasenko13:40

Line 3J. Ek13:06M. Boldy14:03M. Johansson12:15

Line 4T. Pitlick8:19N. Sturm8:23V. Hinostroza8:09

Pair 1Q. Hughes24:17B. Faber21:50

Pair 2J. Middleton18:22J. Spurgeon16:56

Pair 3Z. Bogosian14:33D. Hunt13:57

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos16:24R. O'Reilly16:10L. Evangelista15:33

Line 2J. Marchessault16:30E. Haula15:47F. Forsberg15:12

Line 3M. McCarron15:18C. Smith13:27M. Bunting13:39

Line 4M. Wood9:45T. Jost9:59R. Schaefer6:52

Pair 1R. Josi25:12B. Skjei24:00

Pair 2N. Perbix19:03N. Hague18:39

Pair 3A. Wilsby12:04N. Blankenburg10:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael McCarron MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20260 SOG
Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20241 G, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.4, NSH 3.1	MIN 6, NSH 5
Total goals	6.5	11
Shots on goal	MIN 28.8, NSH 31.1	MIN 43, NSH 35
Win chance	MIN 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	5	1.29	1	43%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	6	0.96	2	37%	1
NSH R. Josi	3.2	8	0.90	2	20%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	6	1.01	4	33%	3
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	1	1.18	2	16%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.6	2	0.72	1	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	6	0.81	3	34%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	4	0.62	0	24%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	3	0.64	1	18%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	1	0.57	2	26%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	1	0.86	3	28%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	3	0.87	1	23%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	0	0.42	0	10%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	2	0.48	0	19%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	4	0.52	1	13%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	5	0.57	1	21%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.6	2	0.38	1	16%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.5	0	0.25	0	12%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	0	0.53	0	16%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.4	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	0	0.24	0	4%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	1	0.45	1	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	1	0.37	1	9%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	2	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	7	0.28	1	12%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	1	0.20	0	8%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	0	0.29	1	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	1	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	0.9	1	0.22	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.19	1	4%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	0	0.15	0	6%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	2	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.