Game Recap: MIN 1, NSH 2, April 11, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

NSH beat MIN 2-1, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 3.08. S. Stamkos led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Jost had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Annunen stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	0	1	1
NSH	1	1	0	2

1st 15:01NSHS. Stamkos0.05 xG
2nd 6:34NSHM. Wood0.22 xG
3rd 6:54MINM. McCarron0.55 xG

Team Stats

MINNSH

22Shots on goal22

3.08Expected goals2.75

61Shot attempts47

195v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play0/4

21Hits18

14Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.08 xGNSH 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN22 on goal, 1 scored

NSH21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	12:07	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	20:41	1:56
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:39	1:12
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	19:35	1:02
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:46	0:58
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:10	0:04
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	13:30	1:14
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	7	1	+1	0	13:23	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:44	0:42
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	4	12:43	0:48
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:20	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:50	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	29:58	2:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	26:45	0:04
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	19:55	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:34	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	22	20	2	.909	57:06	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	2	21:33	4:42
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	2	21:35	4:32
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:08	0:47
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	10:27	0:47
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:49	4:37
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:08	1:04
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	14:19	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:13	3:06
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:22	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:09	0:49
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:48	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:47	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	15:08	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	27:10	4:46
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	24:10	1:45
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:33	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:20	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:21	1:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman15:14K. Kaprizov14:57V. Tarasenko12:07

Line 2Y. Trenin11:41B. Brink12:02M. McCarron10:04

Line 3M. Boldy13:26D. Yurov13:31M. Johansson14:09

Line 4M. Foligno10:50N. Sturm9:27N. Foligno9:23

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:24B. Faber20:10

Pair 2J. Brodin16:40J. Middleton17:11

Pair 3J. Petry10:32D. Hunt10:07

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:31R. O'Reilly15:14L. Evangelista14:40

Line 2T. Jost12:50F. Svechkov13:05R. Schaefer9:47

Line 3Z. L'Heureux11:34E. Haula11:23J. Kemell9:16

Line 4J. Marchessault10:54F. Forsberg12:49M. Wood9:40

Pair 1R. Josi18:41B. Skjei18:52

Pair 2A. Wilsby19:13J. Barron16:06

Pair 3N. Perbix13:35R. Ufko11:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael McCarron MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20261 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.4, NSH 3.0	MIN 1, NSH 2
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	MIN 30.6, NSH 29.3	MIN 22, NSH 22
Win chance	MIN 56%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	0	1.15	0	42%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	5	0.93	0	31%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.8	1	0.86	0	34%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	3	0.74	0	17%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	0	1.02	0	14%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	1	0.55	0	22%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	3	0.73	2	32%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	1	0.64	0	26%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.80	1	25%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	2	0.48	1	14%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	3	0.52	0	21%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	1	0.45	0	11%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.7	5	0.31	0	12%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	1	0.42	0	11%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	0	0.39	0	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	2	0.41	1	18%	1
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.5	0	0.26	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	0	0.31	0	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	3	0.44	0	13%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.2	0	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.2	3	0.20	1	10%	1
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.28	0	14%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	1	0.22	1	5%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	2	0.25	1	6%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	0	0.24	0	7%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	1	0.16	0	10%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.7	1	0.40	0	8%	0
MIN J. Petry	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.