Game Recap: MIN 3, NSH 1, October 1, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN3

FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night

NSH1

MIN beat NSH 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 1.68. MIN outshot NSH 30 to 20. Q. Hughes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Wallstedt stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	0	1	3
NSH	0	1	0	1

1st 9:35MINN. Foligno0.14 xG
1st 13:48MINB. ColemanPP0.16 xG
2nd 9:23NSHR. Josi0.05 xG
3rd 4:42MINK. Kaprizov0.09 xG

Team Stats

MINNSH

30Shots on goal20

3.00Expected goals1.68

61Shot attempts46

205v5 shots on goal13

1/4Power play0/4

21Hits25

10Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.00 xGNSH 1.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN29 on goal, 3 scored

NSH20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:53	5:46
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	13:44	1:18
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	4	6	0	+1	0	13:24	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:29	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	12:29	1:17
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	11:37	1:21
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	2	21:28	5:44
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	20:20	5:44
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:09	5:41
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	12:54	1:14
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:44	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	12:16	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	27:30	6:01
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	21:34	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	2	19:09	1:11
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	20:28	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:32	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	20	19	1	.950	59:14	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:29	5:22
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:46	5:02
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	21:31	4:42
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	2	17:25	3:08
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:22	4:56
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	17:20	3:21
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:20	2:55
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:50	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	12:15	1:18
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:35	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:50	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:32	1:04
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	24:53	5:05
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:53	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	18:04	0:09
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:05	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:27	2:54
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:23	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	27	3	.900	58:19	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1J. Ek11:54M. Boldy12:32B. Coleman10:16

Line 2R. Hartman11:21B. Brink10:10Y. Trenin9:21

Line 3D. Yurov10:19M. Shabanov9:17K. Kaprizov13:05

Line 4N. Foligno9:29M. Foligno10:43M. McCarron9:37

Pair 1Q. Hughes20:30J. Spurgeon15:13

Pair 2O. Maatta15:33J. Brodin14:36

Pair 3Z. Bogosian10:27D. Hunt9:17

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos11:57R. O'Reilly11:38F. Forsberg12:26

Line 2M. Bourque13:07J. Marchessault12:24R. Colton10:48

Line 3R. Schaefer11:17J. Drury9:55A. Edstrom9:40

Line 4N. Hoglander9:28M. Wood8:58A. Kerfoot6:47

Pair 1N. Hague14:36A. Wilsby14:01

Pair 2B. Skjei15:15N. Perbix13:33

Pair 3R. Josi15:23R. Ufko12:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 14 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	3.5	+135	-160	2	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+116	-145	3	Under
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+110	-125	5	Over
MIN B. Coleman	2.5	+140	-160	2	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-108	-110	3	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	-105	-118	5	Over
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	+136	-174	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	-125	+104	3	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	-115	-104	1	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	1.5	-156	+130	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	-145	+115	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	1.5	-132	+105	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-140	+125	4	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+290	-390	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+450	-750	0	Under
MIN M. Foligno	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+375	-475	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+380	-475	0	Under
MIN N. Foligno	0.5	+850	-1600	1	Over
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+500	-700	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
NSH R. Ufko	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under

4 of 15 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+320	-390	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+132	-165	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+196	-270	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
NSH R. Ufko	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+175	-235	1	Over

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-230	+175	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-190	+155	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+100	-125	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-190	+155	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-132	+105	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-128	+105	0	Under
NSH R. Ufko	0.5	+225	-320	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over

0 of 10 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+190	-280	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+330	-550	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+165	-240	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+170	-250	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+270	-400	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+300	-600	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+180	-250	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+180	-260	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+280	-425	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+235	-400	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	25.5	-114	-110	27	Over
MIN J. Wallstedt	24.5	-125	-105	19	Under

2 of 6 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	+115	–	1	Under
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-130	–	5	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	-120	–	3	Over
MIN O. Maatta	1.5	-110	–	1	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+110	–	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	1.5	-120	–	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael McCarron MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20261 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.4, NSH 3.1	MIN 3, NSH 1
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	MIN 29.8, NSH 29.8	MIN 30, NSH 20
Win chance	MIN 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.7	5	1.05	0	35%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	3	1.19	1	42%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.3	3	0.78	0	27%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	2	0.90	1	34%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.8	0	0.65	0	25%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.7	3	0.80	1	19%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	1	0.81	1	33%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.6	2	0.53	1	22%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.3	5	1.09	1	16%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	0	0.59	0	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	4	0.82	0	25%	0
NSH M. Bourque	2.0	4	0.49	0	20%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	0	0.40	0	11%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.5	2	0.28	0	12%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	4	0.26	1	12%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.5	2	0.46	1	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	0	0.29	0	4%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.2	1	0.43	0	15%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.2	0	0.34	0	11%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	1	0.31	1	9%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	0	0.26	0	6%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	1	0.34	1	13%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
MIN O. Maatta	1.0	0	0.33	1	6%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	2	0.30	1	11%	1
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.8	1	0.51	0	7%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.15	0	9%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.17	0	2%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.