Game Recap: MIN 1, NYI 3, April 4, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalFri, Apr 4, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat MIN 3-1, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.04. N. Dobson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Tsyplakov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Sorokin stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	1	0	1
NYI	0	2	1	3

2nd 1:42MINM. Zuccarello0.07 xG
2nd 2:18NYIC. Cizikas0.04 xG
2nd 4:02NYIS. Holmstrom0.02 xG
3rd 3:36NYIN. DobsonPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

MINNYI

28Shots on goal27

2.04Expected goals2.61

68Shot attempts69

195v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play1/3

21Hits14

26Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways16

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.04 xGNYI 2.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN28 on goal, 1 scored

NYI26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	21:38	3:18
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:41	2:37
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	22:32	2:39
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:54	1:24
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	18:43	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:07	2:04
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	14:16	1:55
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	2	13:10	3:05
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:41	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	2	9:34	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:09	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:30	0:42
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	26:18	1:21
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	24:00	0:55
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:58	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	13:31	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	12:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	27	24	3	.889	57:02	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:32	1:32
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	15:30	1:27
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:24	0:04
P. Engvall	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:09	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:13	3:21
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:54	3:20
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:11	3:14
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:50	1:23
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	13:04	0:01
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:11	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:59	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	+1	0	18:55	4:42
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	22:11	1:30
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	21:39	3:16
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	0	0	23:06	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:32	0:05
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, NYI 3.2	MIN 1, NYI 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	MIN 26.9, NYI 32.3	MIN 28, NYI 27
Win chance	NYI 57%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	2	0.83	0	29%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	1	0.74	0	32%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	0	0.57	0	26%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.6	1	0.61	2	11%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.5	4	0.63	1	12%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	1	0.66	0	28%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	3	0.51	0	22%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	3	0.75	1	21%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.8	0	0.35	0	4%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.7	1	0.49	1	17%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	1	0.57	0	22%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	2	0.43	0	9%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	2	0.47	0	9%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.6	3	0.34	1	15%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.6	1	0.52	0	17%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	1	0.45	0	19%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.5	0	0.34	0	14%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.4	0	0.32	0	8%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	4	0.28	0	5%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	2	0.36	0	6%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	1	0.32	1	7%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.3	3	0.50	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	3	0.50	1	21%	1
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	3	0.40	0	17%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.2	5	0.37	1	11%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	2	0.26	1	11%	1
NYI H. Fasching	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	2	0.20	0	11%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	0	0.25	0	15%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	0.9	1	0.21	0	11%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.16	0	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.6	0	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.