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Game Recap
MIN5
NYI2
MIN beat NYI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.14 expected goals to 2.06. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Heineman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Wallstedt stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| NYI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 7:24MINV. Hinostroza0.07 xG
- 1st 12:32MIND. Yurov0.03 xG
- 2nd 4:38NYIE. Heineman0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:56MINB. Faber0.11 xG
- 2nd 9:05MINM. Rossi0.24 xG
- 2nd 18:51NYIJ. Pageau0.07 xG
- 3rd 8:33MINK. Kaprizov0.14 xG
Team Stats
MINNYI
26Shots on goal27
3.14Expected goals2.06
56Shot attempts46
235v5 shots on goal22
0/1Power play0/2
16Hits15
11Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways21
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.14 xGNYI 2.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:44 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:18 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:42 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:16 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:29 | 1:44 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:06 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:54 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:16 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:54 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:59 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:58 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 1:13 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:01 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:47 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:13 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:52 | 2:38 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:04 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:03 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 2:44 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:58 | 0:06 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:14 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 60:00 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1K. Kaprizov15:06M. Rossi15:04M. Zuccarello14:32
Line 2V. Tarasenko14:32R. Hartman14:30V. Hinostroza13:34
Line 3M. Johansson13:08J. Ek12:35M. Boldy13:15
Line 4M. Foligno11:48Y. Trenin12:42D. Yurov11:20
Pair 1J. Spurgeon17:58J. Middleton20:00
NYI
Line 1M. Barzal17:47B. Horvat16:06E. Heineman14:21
Line 2A. Lee14:34J. Pageau14:40S. Holmstrom13:13
Line 3K. Palmieri13:16J. Drouin12:14C. Ritchie11:38
Line 4C. Cizikas11:11K. MacLean10:50A. Duclair11:50
Pair 2S. Mayfield17:31M. Schaefer20:23
Pair 3T. DeAngelo15:58A. Romanov15:30
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, NYI 3.4 | MIN 5, NYI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.0, NYI 32.5 | MIN 26, NYI 27 |
| Win chance | NYI 60% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 1 | 1.23 | 2 | 43% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.4 | 4 | 0.93 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.8 | 0 | 0.98 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.5 | 5 | 0.42 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Buium | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.