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Game Recap
MIN4
NYR5
NYR beat MIN 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 2.18. NYR outshot MIN 39 to 24. A. Panarin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Panarin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. I. Shesterkin stopped 20 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| NYR | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 9:00MING. NyquistPP0.09 xG
- 1st 12:45NYRB. Schneider0.05 xG
- 1st 15:00MINB. Faber0.03 xG
- 2nd 2:51NYRK. Miller0.02 xG
- 2nd 7:21NYRC. Kreider0.19 xG
- 2nd 9:50MINM. JohanssonSH0.15 xG
- 2nd 18:56NYRA. Panarin0.20 xG
- 3rd 0:22MINM. Rossi0.81 xG
- OT 0:24NYRV. Trocheck0.14 xG
Team Stats
MINNYR
24Shots on goal39
2.18Expected goals3.60
52Shot attempts78
195v5 shots on goal33
1/2Power play0/4
17Hits24
11Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways16
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.18 xGNYR 3.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:51 | 2:16 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:33 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:21 | 1:30 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:19 | 2:15 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:16 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:14 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:18 | 1:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:37 | 0:14 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:27 | 0:15 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:46 | 0:57 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 39 | 34 | 5 | .872 | 60:24 | OT loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:06 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:31 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 4:12 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:01 | 3:52 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:38 | 4:10 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:14 | 3:08 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:34 | 3:18 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:06 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:38 | 3:01 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 3:14 |
| B. Schneider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:56 | 4:12 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 60:24 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, NYR 3.2 | MIN 4, NYR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.1, NYR 29.4 | MIN 24, NYR 39 |
| Win chance | NYR 58% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 7 | 1.10 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.7 | 5 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.