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Game Recap
MIN3
NYR1
MIN beat NYR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.31 expected goals to 2.47. MIN outshot NYR 32 to 24. J. Miller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 23 of 24.
Team Stats
MINNYR
32Shots on goal24
3.31Expected goals2.47
69Shot attempts67
285v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/1
20Hits34
19Blocked shots21
2Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways9
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.31 xGNYR 2.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:24 | 4:11 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:15 | 4:12 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 4:09 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:49 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:44 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 1:44 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 4:09 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:07 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:48 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 1:35 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:18 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:58 | 0:07 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:07 | 1:31 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 1:33 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:41 | 1:32 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:08 | 0:29 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 18:26 | 1:29 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:31 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:27 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:28 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:34 | 1:38 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:22 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 58:27 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Boldy16:02J. Ek15:23K. Kaprizov17:07
Line 2R. Hartman15:43V. Hinostroza11:49M. Foligno12:11
Line 3B. Jones10:58Y. Trenin12:47T. Pitlick8:57
Line 4V. Tarasenko9:59D. Yurov8:55M. Johansson11:26
Pair 2J. Spurgeon18:51Z. Buium14:26
Pair 3J. Middleton15:04D.Jiricek12:47
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad17:09A. Panarin18:37W. Cuylle16:34
Line 2J. Miller17:42A. Lafrenière15:24C. Sheary15:09
Line 3S. Carrick11:26A. Edstrom9:49M. Rempe9:00
Line 4T. Raddysh7:39J. Parssinen7:23N. Laba5:44
Pair 1V. Gavrikov22:10A. Fox21:35
Pair 2W. Borgen16:31M. Robertson17:30
Pair 3C. Soucy10:20B. Schneider12:33
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.7, NYR 3.3 | MIN 3, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.6, NYR 30.0 | MIN 32, NYR 24 |
| Win chance | NYR 59% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 6 | 1.18 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 3 | 1.25 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.3 | 0 | 0.98 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.2 | 6 | 1.10 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Buium | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.8 | 1 | 0.05 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.