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Game Recap
MIN4
SEA3
MIN beat SEA 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.85 expected goals to 3.78. SEA outshot MIN 36 to 20. F. Gaudreau led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Montour had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. F. Gustavsson stopped 33 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 12:27MINV. HinostrozaPP0.23 xG
- 1st 16:40SEAA. Larsson0.04 xG
- 1st 18:23MINJ. Spurgeon0.03 xG
- 2nd 1:41MINF. Gaudreau0.07 xG
- 2nd 8:22MINM. Zuccarello0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:10SEAS. WrightPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 19:48SEAB. Montour0.05 xG
Team Stats
MINSEA
20Shots on goal36
1.85Expected goals3.78
43Shot attempts80
195v5 shots on goal28
1/1Power play1/2
15Hits17
21Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
15Giveaways9
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.85 xGSEA 3.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:26 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:26 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:26 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:26 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26:05 | 0:26 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:54 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 2:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:54 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:54 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:54 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:52 | 2:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:43 | 0:54 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 20 | 16 | 4 | .800 | 57:43 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, SEA 3.0 | MIN 4, SEA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.5, SEA 28.8 | MIN 20, SEA 36 |
| Win chance | SEA 52% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 7 | 0.49 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.4 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.3 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 1.7 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.