Game Recap: MIN 4, SEA 1, December 8, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN4

FinalMon, Dec 8, 2025Every game that night

SEA1

MIN beat SEA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 1.75. J. Eriksson Ek led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Eriksson Ek had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. F. Gustavsson stopped 23 of 24.

Team Stats

MINSEA

29Shots on goal24

3.42Expected goals1.75

65Shot attempts63

185v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play1/3

24Hits16

17Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways18

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.42 xGSEA 1.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN28 on goal, 3 scored

SEA24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	2	3	6	0	0	+3	0	21:04	4:12
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	23:08	4:05
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	2	1	3	+3	2	22:49	4:08
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+3	0	18:37	1:52
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:37	2:24
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	11:47	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	4	9	0	0	0	16:40	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:03	1:50
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	13:36	0:58
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:50	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5:32	2:34
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	18:08	1:52
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:34	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+2	0	22:05	0:01
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	21:52	3:36
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	14:24	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:58	2:28
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	9:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	24	23	1	.958	59:59	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-3	2	17:24	2:21
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:05	2:29
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	15:40	2:24
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:57	2:24
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-3	0	16:46	1:39
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:12	1:40
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	15:58	1:44
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:08	1:45
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:20	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:05	0:01
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:26	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:06	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	22:21	2:10
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:37	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	18:41	0:05
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:38	0:44
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	4	18:04	1:14
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	17:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	27	25	2	.926	58:42	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1J. Ek14:43M. Boldy15:58M. Johansson15:35

Line 2Y. Trenin14:11L. Ohgren12:50N. Sturm9:23

Line 3V. Tarasenko16:04K. Kaprizov18:30D. Yurov12:38

Pair 1J. Brodin19:08B. Faber15:23

Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:43J. Middleton14:34

Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:52Z. Buium11:30

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle12:37M. Beniers13:40J. McCann12:02

Line 2K. Kakko13:14S. Wright14:05J. Nyman13:20

Line 3C. Stephenson12:44E. Tolvanen12:48M. Marchment14:22

Line 4F. Gaudreau9:43R. Winterton9:16T. Kartye7:36

Pair 1R. Evans15:52J. Mahura16:16

Pair 2B. Montour18:46R. Lindgren14:11

Pair 3A. Larsson16:41V. Dunn15:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.8, SEA 2.8	MIN 4, SEA 1
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	MIN 26.4, SEA 28.4	MIN 29, SEA 24
Win chance	SEA 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	3	1.18	1	43%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	2	0.93	1	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	6	0.68	3	26%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.7	1	0.51	0	14%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	2	0.76	1	30%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.5	0	0.66	0	14%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	3	0.67	1	24%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	1	0.50	0	21%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	2	0.82	0	22%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.1	0	0.59	0	23%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.9	1	0.43	0	10%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.59	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.42	0	19%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	2	0.52	1	17%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.5	2	0.46	1	18%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	0	0.30	0	7%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.33	1	8%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	4	0.26	0	13%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	2	0.24	0	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	4	0.64	1	20%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	3	0.46	0	19%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	0	0.33	0	7%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	0	0.31	0	15%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	1.0	1	0.24	0	4%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	0	0.23	1	5%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	2	0.14	0	8%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	0.9	2	0.14	0	7%	0
MIN Z. Buium	0.9	1	0.36	0	6%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	2	0.20	1	10%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	1	0.27	0	5%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.