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Game Recap
MIN3
SEA2
MIN beat SEA 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 2.82. B. Faber led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:00MINR. Hartman0.06 xG
- 1st 15:54MINB. Faber0.04 xG
- 3rd 3:13SEAA. Larsson0.02 xG
- 3rd 9:07SEAM. BeniersPP0.26 xG
- OT 2:09MINM. Zuccarello0.16 xG
Team Stats
MINSEA
34Shots on goal28
2.87Expected goals2.82
64Shot attempts63
265v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play1/3
16Hits13
9Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways12
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.87 xGSEA 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:44 | 1:20 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:19 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:59 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:41 | 1:05 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:41 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 1:01 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:57 | 0:55 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 29:09 | 0:41 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 30:13 | 1:19 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:40 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 62:09 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:55 | 3:02 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 3:34 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:30 | 3:08 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:16 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:02 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:45 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:04 | 1:07 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:02 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 1:11 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:32 | 3:33 |
| A. Larsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:51 | 0:05 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:45 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 62:09 | OT loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1K. Kaprizov21:53M. Zuccarello16:59D. Yurov15:42
Line 2M. Johansson14:39M. Boldy15:19R. Hartman17:36
Line 3V. Tarasenko12:01M. Foligno11:33Y. Trenin10:52
Line 4N. Sturm9:23V. Hinostroza9:04
Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:04J. Brodin17:08
Pair 3J. Middleton11:49D. Hunt11:16
SEA
Line 1J. McCann14:20M. Beniers15:23K. Kakko15:44
Line 2C. Stephenson15:10F. Gaudreau15:39E. Tolvanen13:17
Line 3J. Melanson12:20B. Meyers12:50T. Kartye12:12
Line 4B. Catton12:06S. Wright10:13R. Winterton11:33
Pair 1A. Larsson23:46V. Dunn20:57
Pair 2R. Evans16:17J. Oleksiak15:37
Pair 3C. Fleury16:15R. Lindgren14:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, SEA 3.0 | MIN 3, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.5, SEA 28.6 | MIN 34, SEA 28 |
| Win chance | MIN 52% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 4 | 1.20 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.6 | 4 | 0.97 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 4 | 0.53 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 1.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.