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Game Recap
MIN5
FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night
SEA1

MIN beat SEA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.63 expected goals to 2.21. MIN outshot SEA 36 to 24. B. Coleman led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Kiersted had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MIN1315
SEA1001
  1. 1st 0:26MINK. Kaprizov0.21 xG
  2. 1st 10:13SEAB. Catton0.04 xG
  3. 2nd 2:11MINB. Coleman0.17 xG
  4. 2nd 11:33MINO. Maatta0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 13:00MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.43 xG
  6. 3rd 16:24MINB. ColemanEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

MINSEA
36Shots on goal24
5.63Expected goals2.21
71Shot attempts50
295v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/3
15Hits15
16Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways13
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 5.63 xGSEA 2.21 xGGoal

01234561st2nd3rdMIN goal, 0:26SEA goal, 10:13MIN goal, 2:11MIN goal, 11:33MIN goal, 13:00MIN goal, 16:24

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN36 on goal, 5 scored
SEA24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KaprizovLW112400+2017:542:30
B. ColemanLW202521+2416:302:06
J. Eriksson EkC112200+2015:082:22
M. BoldyLW011500+2017:142:28
R. HartmanRW011101+1013:471:30
D. YurovRW000100+1016:571:32
M. McCarronC0002300215:110:00
Y. TreninC000321+1015:010:00
N. SturmC0001110013:210:00
B. BrinkRW0000110013:211:48
M. ShabanovRW000101+1012:000:00
T. PitlickC000110029:350:00
Q. HughesD011102+1022:492:34
O. MaattaD101102+1020:050:00
M. KierstedD011511+3016:390:00
J. SpurgeonD0001220021:471:26
J. BrodinD0001130017:440:04
Z. BogosianD000110+3016:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Wallstedt24231.95860:00Win
C. Pickard000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KakkoRW011100-2017:183:15
B. CattonC1015100015:223:25
M. BeniersC000001-1019:432:40
J. EberleRW000211-1018:522:40
B. McMannC000220-2016:252:37
M. SamoskevichRW000210-3016:212:43
C. StephensonC000111-2215:562:42
F. GaudreauC000102-2015:540:00
S. WrightC0001200015:333:19
R. WintertonC0000000014:240:00
B. MeyersC0001110013:020:00
C. DouglasC000012005:170:00
B. MontourD011211-1023:423:08
V. DunnD000401-3020:472:52
R. EvansD000000-2420:430:39
A. LarssonD000112-2017:460:00
J. MahuraD0001110016:390:00
C. FleuryD0000220013:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord35314.88656:35Loss
P. Grubauer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov13:44M. Boldy12:24J. Ek10:15
Line 2B. Coleman11:36B. Brink11:33M. McCarron12:09
Line 3Y. Trenin11:26M. Shabanov10:53D. Yurov11:30
Line 4R. Hartman12:17N. Sturm11:18T. Pitlick9:35
Pair 1J. Spurgeon14:59Q. Hughes20:00
Pair 2Z. Bogosian13:45M. Kiersted14:15
Pair 3J. Brodin15:07O. Maatta14:29

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:53M. Beniers13:24K. Kakko12:37
Line 2C. Stephenson10:47B. McMann11:49M. Samoskevich12:12
Line 3F. Gaudreau12:31B. Meyers11:59C. Douglas5:17
Line 4S. Wright10:48B. Catton10:31R. Winterton12:52
Pair 1R. Evans18:18B. Montour16:42
Pair 2A. Larsson15:19V. Dunn14:04
Pair 3J. Mahura14:31C. Fleury13:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MIN J. Ek3.5+162-1652Under
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+122-1304Over
MIN M. Boldy3.5-132+1055Over
MIN B. Coleman2.5+158-1605Over
SEA B. McMann2.5+110-1352Under
SEA B. Montour2.5+100-1252Under
MIN Q. Hughes2.5-102-1181Under
SEA V. Dunn2.5+180-1854Over
SEA B. Catton1.5+100-1455Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-125+1102Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5-115-1050Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-155+1202Over
MIN R. Hartman1.5-140+1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMIN 3.3, SEA 2.9MIN 5, SEA 1
Total goals6.26
Shots on goalMIN 30.3, SEA 27.1MIN 36, SEA 24
Win chanceMIN 56%MIN won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.851.09138%0
MIN K. Kaprizov3.341.23244%1
MIN J. Ek3.220.80229%1
SEA B. Montour2.820.56117%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.511.03113%0
SEA B. McMann2.520.57026%0
SEA V. Dunn2.340.62014%0
MIN B. Coleman2.250.48222%2
SEA M. Samoskevich1.920.43017%0
SEA J. Eberle1.920.60022%0
MIN R. Hartman1.810.45119%0
SEA M. Beniers1.600.56022%0
MIN J. Brodin1.610.3607%0
SEA R. Winterton1.600.32010%0
SEA A. Larsson1.510.3309%0
SEA B. Catton1.550.44115%1
MIN D. Yurov1.410.44019%0
MIN B. Brink1.300.41015%0
MIN M. McCarron1.320.26011%0
SEA K. Kakko1.310.58118%0
SEA S. Wright1.210.39017%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.130.26011%0
MIN J. Spurgeon1.110.2906%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.110.38016%0
SEA B. Meyers1.110.28012%0
MIN M. Kiersted1.150.2414%0
SEA C. Fleury1.000.1303%0
MIN Z. Bogosian1.010.1704%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.010.59018%0
SEA R. Evans0.900.36010%0
MIN O. Maatta0.910.2714%1
SEA J. Mahura0.810.1803%0
SEA C. Douglas0.800.1105%0
MIN N. Sturm0.810.2108%0
MIN T. Pitlick0.710.1105%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.