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Game Recap
MIN5
SJS2
MIN beat SJS 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.25 expected goals to 2.28. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Spurgeon had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. M. Fleury stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 2:22MINZ. Bogosian0.01 xG
- 2nd 4:36SJSM. Celebrini0.19 xG
- 2nd 8:01MINM. Zuccarello0.17 xG
- 2nd 13:26MINM. BoldyPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:02MINJ. Brodin0.02 xG
- 3rd 16:08SJSM. Celebrini0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:25MINM. BoldyEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
MINSJS
31Shots on goal26
4.25Expected goals2.28
62Shot attempts48
225v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/3
16Hits20
9Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways17
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 4.25 xGSJS 2.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:10 | 3:52 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 3:46 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:03 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 3:55 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:26 | 3:58 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:05 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:12 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:48 | 3:53 |
| J. Brodin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:46 | 1:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 59:48 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 4:03 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 3:48 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:57 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 3:41 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:16 | 2:03 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:55 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:16 | 2:13 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 12:31 | 2:13 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:01 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:47 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:05 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:14 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 59:17 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.7, SJS 2.6 | MIN 5, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 32.4, SJS 26.6 | MIN 31, SJS 26 |
| Win chance | MIN 66% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.7 | 3 | 1.48 | 3 | 48% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 5 | 1.08 | 2 | 35% | 2 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.7 | 6 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.3 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.