Game Recap: MIN 3, SJS 1, January 11, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN3

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

SJS1

MIN beat SJS 3-1, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.78. SJS outshot MIN 37 to 22. M. Zuccarello led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Celebrini had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. M. Fleury stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	1	1	1	3
SJS	0	1	0	1

1st 5:51MINM. Rossi0.11 xG
2nd 4:34MINM. Boldy0.05 xG
2nd 17:30SJSW. Eklund0.35 xG
3rd 18:43MINM. Zuccarello0.01 xG

Team Stats

MINSJS

22Shots on goal37

2.53Expected goals2.78

49Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal31

0/0Power play0/2

20Hits18

17Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes0

15Giveaways10

10Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.53 xGSJS 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN20 on goal, 3 scored

SJS36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	2	3	1	0	2	+3	0	22:13	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+3	0	18:36	0:00
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+3	0	19:29	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	18:20	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:53	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	15:34	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:40	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:36	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:27	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:53	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:53	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	6:29	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:46	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	25:09	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	2	24:28	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:55	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:26	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	-1	20:35	1:56
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:24	1:45
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	20:54	1:57
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	20:09	1:53
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	18:34	1:46
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	17:45	0:45
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	13:53	0:52
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	12:31	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	11:09	0:01
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:05	0:06
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	9:48	0:01
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	9:15	0:59
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	5	1	1	-1	22:19	1:57
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:52	0:08
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	20:25	0:01
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	19:32	0:52
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	16:29	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	22	19	3	.864	59:08	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.7, SJS 2.6	MIN 3, SJS 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	MIN 32.1, SJS 27.3	MIN 22, SJS 37
Win chance	MIN 66%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	4	0.99	2	34%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.1	1	0.84	0	30%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	6	0.73	1	25%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.5	1	1.04	3	27%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	3	0.58	0	26%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.4	5	0.48	1	13%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	2	0.58	0	24%	0
MIN M. Rossi	2.2	3	0.81	1	29%	1
SJS M. Granlund	2.2	2	0.78	0	18%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.1	5	0.55	0	21%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	2	0.58	1	17%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	0	0.47	0	18%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.5	1	0.40	0	16%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.5	1	0.27	0	7%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	1	0.31	0	16%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.3	1	0.36	1	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.3	2	0.37	0	9%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	1	0.28	0	17%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	0	0.42	0	18%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.2	3	0.18	0	10%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	3	0.27	0	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	0	0.37	0	13%	0
SJS H. Thrun	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS J. Rutta	1.0	2	0.20	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.9	1	0.22	0	5%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	2	0.08	0	7%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.8	0	0.19	0	6%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.7	2	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN T. Dermott	0.6	0	0.11	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.