Game Recap: MIN 3, SJS 4 (SO), December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN3

Final/SOWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

SJS4

SJS beat MIN 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.14 expected goals to 2.79. M. Celebrini led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Regenda had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. Y. Askarov stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MIN	1	0	2	0	3
SJS	0	2	1	1	4

1st 10:38MINV. Tarasenko0.06 xG
2nd 1:14SJSI. Chernyshov0.17 xG
2nd 16:47SJSJ. SkinnerPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:16SJSM. Celebrini0.11 xG
3rd 6:40MINM. Foligno0.02 xG
3rd 8:47MINM. Zuccarello0.11 xG

Team Stats

MINSJS

23Shots on goal28

2.79Expected goals2.14

63Shot attempts54

185v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play1/1

19Hits19

13Blocked shots22

2Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways19

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.79 xGSJS 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN22 on goal, 3 scored

SJS28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:17	1:28
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	15:47	0:31
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:17	0:32
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	13:54	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	13:06	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	21:19	1:28
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:17	1:29
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	20:01	1:30
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:04	0:30
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:36	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:06	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:20	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	16:43	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	15:16	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	29:05	1:26
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	23:35	0:34
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:12	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:41	0:32

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	28	25	3	.893	64:27	OT loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	0	21:59	1:31
I. Chernyshov	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	16:08	0:24
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:26	1:32
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:31	0:25
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:58	1:33
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:37	0:26
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	15:43	1:16
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	2	14:36	0:41
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:56	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:26	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	11:25	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:54	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	22:21	0:33
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	25:46	1:24
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	22:15	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	0	20:15	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:05	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	14:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	23	20	3	.870	65:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson15:06J. Ek15:54M. Boldy15:01

Line 2M. Zuccarello14:29K. Kaprizov16:02D. Yurov14:36

Line 3R. Hartman15:03V. Tarasenko13:12V. Hinostroza13:21

Line 4M. Foligno12:19Y. Trenin11:27N. Sturm10:00

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:32B. Faber21:11

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:34J. Brodin18:44

Pair 3Z. Bogosian15:16J. Middleton15:43

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg16:27C. Graf16:10T. Toffoli14:27

Line 2W. Eklund14:39M. Celebrini16:40I. Chernyshov14:30

Line 3J. Skinner13:33T. Dellandrea12:33P. Regenda13:22

Line 4R. Reaves11:25B. Goodrow12:40Z. Ostapchuk9:54

Pair 1D. Orlov19:52J. Klingberg22:10

Pair 2S. Mukhamadullin19:01M. Ferraro20:49

Pair 3V. Iorio15:43S. Dickinson13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.3, SJS 2.7	MIN 3, SJS 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	MIN 29.6, SJS 27.3	MIN 23, SJS 28
Win chance	MIN 60%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.6	4	1.34	0	47%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	4	1.09	2	31%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	4	1.06	0	36%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.78	0	28%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	3	1.09	0	15%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	3	0.69	0	28%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.4	0	0.68	1	21%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	0	0.53	1	23%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	2	0.87	1	23%	1
SJS I. Chernyshov	2.1	1	0.52	2	16%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	1	0.59	1	23%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.8	0	0.45	0	11%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.8	3	0.53	0	13%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	1	0.43	1	20%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	1	0.57	0	18%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.5	1	0.51	0	21%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	1	0.39	1	8%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	0	0.47	0	15%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.4	4	0.23	0	12%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	2	0.40	0	9%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	0	0.55	0	16%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	2	0.29	0	13%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	3	0.22	0	5%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	0	0.35	0	7%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	0	0.23	0	8%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	2	0.31	1	15%	1
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	0	0.24	1	11%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.17	0	4%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	2	0.25	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.0	0	0.20	1	5%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	0	0.24	1	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	1	0.09	0	5%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	2	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.