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Game Recap
MIN4
STL1
MIN beat STL 4-1, with the chances close: 2.37 expected goals to 2.40. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Lauko had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
MINSTL
27Shots on goal28
2.37Expected goals2.40
59Shot attempts72
215v5 shots on goal19
2/5Power play0/2
24Hits22
23Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes10
17Giveaways16
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.37 xGSTL 2.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:59 | 6:02 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 6:08 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 3:19 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:32 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 2:09 |
| J. Lauko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 5:57 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:29 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:25 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:18 | 1:40 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:32 | 1:48 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:54 | 5:51 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:35 | 2:02 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17:56 | 0:56 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 2:02 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:09 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:36 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Joseph | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:58 | 0:07 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:36 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:49 | 3:17 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:40 | 3:15 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:46 | 3:16 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:44 | 3:15 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:46 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:38 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:45 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 16:26 | 0:30 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:30 | 0:05 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:15 | 3:23 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:07 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:16 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.2, STL 3.2 | MIN 4, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 31.1, STL 29.7 | MIN 27, STL 28 |
| Win chance | STL 51% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 4.2 | 0 | 1.23 | 2 | 44% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.0 | 5 | 0.90 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.7 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.5 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.0 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.9 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 1.0 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.