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Game Recap
MIN4
STL2
MIN beat STL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.12 expected goals to 2.15. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Boldy had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 12:24MINR. Hartman0.08 xG
- 2nd 4:48STLS. Perunovich0.11 xG
- 3rd 6:07MINK. Kaprizov0.07 xG
- 3rd 10:37STLJ. NeighboursPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 13:44MINJ. Brodin0.02 xG
- 3rd 18:37MINK. KaprizovEN0.50 xG
Team Stats
MINSTL
28Shots on goal24
3.12Expected goals2.15
61Shot attempts61
245v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play1/2
17Hits17
19Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways11
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.12 xGSTL 2.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:58 | 2:32 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:49 | 2:35 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:28 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:56 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:49 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:07 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:51 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:05 | 1:48 |
| J. Brodin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:06 | 0:16 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 2 | 20:12 | 0:30 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:13 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:55 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:07 | 2:41 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:49 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 2:42 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:21 | 2:23 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:02 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:06 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:07 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:28 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 24:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 22:31 | 2:47 |
| C. Schueneman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:30 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, STL 2.9 | MIN 4, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 29.4, STL 27.8 | MIN 28, STL 24 |
| Win chance | MIN 53% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 4 | 1.31 | 2 | 44% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 6 | 0.89 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.9 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL C. Schueneman | 1.0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.