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Game Recap
MIN5
STL0
MIN beat STL 5-0, with the chances close: 2.38 expected goals to 2.77. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Tucker had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 26 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 15:54MINR. Hartman0.17 xG
- 1st 17:30MINM. Boldy0.09 xG
- 2nd 12:27MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.44 xG
- 2nd 17:36MINR. Hartman0.12 xG
- 3rd 7:27MINM. Rossi0.38 xG
Team Stats
MINSTL
21Shots on goal26
2.38Expected goals2.77
49Shot attempts60
205v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play0/2
19Hits40
16Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways12
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.38 xGSTL 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:54 | 2:28 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:12 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:14 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:28 | 2:15 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 1:53 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:57 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:53 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| H. Haight | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:26 | 1:40 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 1:53 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 2:15 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 26 | 26 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:09 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:10 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:53 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:55 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:20 | 1:47 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:51 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 2:05 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 2:07 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:43 | 2:09 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:36 | 1:48 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:03 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:03 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1R. Hartman15:35Y. Trenin16:44M. Johansson13:57
Line 2J. Ek14:03M. Foligno13:35V. Tarasenko13:49
Line 3K. Kaprizov14:08M. Boldy12:13M. Rossi12:00
Line 4L. Ohgren10:31H. Haight10:27V. Hinostroza8:46
Pair 1J. Middleton19:52B. Faber20:44
Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:55Z. Buium17:55
Pair 3Z. Bogosian14:05D.Jiricek14:01
STL
Line 1J. Kyrou14:32D. Holloway15:48B. Schenn14:33
Line 2P. Buchnevich13:17R. Thomas13:58J. Neighbours12:07
Line 3N. Bjugstad9:30A. Toropchenko8:53N. Walker12:44
Line 4M. Joseph11:54P. Suter14:11J. Snuggerud14:00
Pair 1J. Faulk19:40P. Broberg20:17
Pair 2C. Fowler17:32C. Parayko18:37
Pair 3T. Tucker13:35L. Mailloux14:12
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.7, STL 3.2 | MIN 5, STL 0 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 25.2, STL 27.9 | MIN 21, STL 26 |
| Win chance | STL 58% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 0 | 1.15 | 3 | 43% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.6 | 1 | 0.96 | 3 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.3 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.1 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 0 | 1.05 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.