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Game Recap
MIN4
TBL2
MIN beat TBL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.14 expected goals to 2.00. TBL outshot MIN 26 to 18. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Fleury stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 6:23MINK. Kaprizov0.06 xG
- 2nd 8:55TBLB. HagelSH0.16 xG
- 2nd 11:31TBLN. Kucherov0.12 xG
- 2nd 18:22MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.20 xG
- 3rd 0:54MINM. BoldyPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:26MINK. KaprizovEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
MINTBL
18Shots on goal26
3.14Expected goals2.00
46Shot attempts54
135v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play0/1
29Hits14
19Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways23
7Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.14 xGTBL 2.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 4:58 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 4:55 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 4:54 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 4:52 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:46 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:52 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:08 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 0:05 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:46 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:17 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:33 | 1:02 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:10 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:11 | 4:59 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:46 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:33 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 1:33 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:29 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:33 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 23:05 | 1:33 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 58:56 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.2, TBL 3.4 | MIN 4, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 29.0, TBL 29.5 | MIN 18, TBL 26 |
| Win chance | TBL 53% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 2 | 1.30 | 3 | 44% | 2 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 1 | 1.52 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.8 | 5 | 0.89 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.7 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 0 | 1.05 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.4 | 4 | 0.87 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.