Game Recap: MIN 1, VAN 3, March 7, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalFri, Mar 7, 2025Every game that night

VAN3

VAN beat MIN 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.10 expected goals to 2.96. MIN outshot VAN 38 to 20. F. Hronek led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Johansson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. K. Lankinen stopped 37 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	0	1	1
VAN	1	0	2	3

1st 16:14VANE. PetterssonPP0.06 xG
3rd 7:12MINB. FaberPP0.12 xG
3rd 16:15VANK. Sherwood0.07 xG
3rd 19:06VANT. BluegerEN0.27 xG

Team Stats

MINVAN

38Shots on goal20

2.96Expected goals2.10

75Shot attempts50

285v5 shots on goal16

1/2Power play1/3

31Hits29

16Blocked shots21

11Penalty minutes9

16Giveaways11

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.96 xGVAN 2.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN37 on goal, 1 scored

VAN19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	20:42	3:29
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	-1	0	19:24	3:34
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	20:37	3:29
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	16:53	0:06
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:12	0:39
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	16:09	0:01
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	15:46	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	15:40	0:04
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:19	2:52
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	10:54	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	7:40	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	7:11	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	4	3	1	-1	0	27:20	2:29
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	21:50	0:01
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	21:49	1:11
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	13:42	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	19	17	2	.895	58:50	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	19:07	4:08
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:13	4:12
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	16:52	1:03
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	7	0	+1	7	13:54	0:05
T. Blueger	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	12:15	0:01
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	16:48	4:11
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:47	4:10
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:01	1:04
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:19	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:32	0:53
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:30	0:58
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	2	23:13	3:07
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	22:27	2:06
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:20	0:06
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	+1	0	17:42	0:11
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:38	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	38	37	1	.974	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMarco Rossi VAN Faces MIN, his team until Nov 20251 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.6, VAN 3.0	MIN 1, VAN 3
Total goals	5.6	4
Shots on goal	MIN 24.3, VAN 27.7	MIN 38, VAN 20
Win chance	VAN 56%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	2	0.83	1	28%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.5	2	0.57	0	22%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.2	2	0.61	0	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	2	0.77	1	30%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	2	0.58	0	27%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	3	0.76	0	20%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	3	0.79	1	27%	1
MIN R. Hartman	1.8	0	0.43	0	17%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.7	2	0.41	1	18%	1
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	4	0.63	1	23%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	0	0.36	0	15%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.50	2	7%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.6	0	0.45	1	20%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	3	0.45	0	18%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.5	2	0.35	0	14%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	2	0.29	0	14%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	6	0.40	0	14%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	0	0.36	0	17%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.3	4	0.41	1	10%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	0	0.34	0	4%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.3	3	0.57	0	18%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.37	0	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.3	2	0.30	0	9%	0
VAN V. Mancini	1.2	1	0.27	0	5%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.1	2	0.31	1	10%	1
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.33	0	4%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.1	0	0.41	0	19%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	2	0.35	0	15%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	2	0.21	0	11%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.16	0	5%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	2	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.