Game Recap: MIN 3, VAN 2 (OT), April 12, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN3

Final/OTSat, Apr 12, 2025Every game that night

VAN2

MIN beat VAN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 1.24. MIN outshot VAN 33 to 14. B. Faber led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 12 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	0	0	2	1	3
VAN	1	1	0	0	2

1st 3:11VANM. Pettersson0.09 xG
2nd 13:08VANJ. DeBruskPP0.11 xG
3rd 0:22MINB. Faber0.19 xG
3rd 13:14MINM. Foligno0.19 xG
OT 2:47MINM. Zuccarello0.27 xG

Team Stats

MINVAN

33Shots on goal14

3.32Expected goals1.24

72Shot attempts32

305v5 shots on goal11

0/2Power play1/2

30Hits17

11Blocked shots17

21Penalty minutes11

9Giveaways12

8Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.32 xGVAN 1.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN33 on goal, 3 scored

VAN13 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	26:09	3:32
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	2	22:31	3:35
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	12:39	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	10:49	0:28
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	7:31	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	4	1	+1	0	27:15	4:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	24:41	2:48
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:55	0:25
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:46	0:28
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:11	3:32
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:53	1:12
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	17	6:03	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	33:28	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	32:09	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	2	18:22	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:31	0:00
C. Crotty	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	5:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	14	12	2	.857	62:47	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:04	2:35
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	14:28	0:53
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:00	0:42
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	4	12:50	0:00
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	22:22	2:37
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:01	2:37
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	17:09	2:13
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	15:09	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	14:36	0:44
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:18	0:13
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
T. Mueller	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	10:56	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	27:02	2:40
M. Pettersson	D	1	0	1	2	1	4	-1	0	25:55	0:13
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	28:29	1:08
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:44	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:01	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	11:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	33	30	3	.909	62:47	OT loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMarco Rossi VAN Faces MIN, his team until Nov 20250 SOG
Old teamQuinn Hughes MIN Faces VAN, his team until Dec 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.7, VAN 3.4	MIN 3, VAN 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	MIN 24.8, VAN 28.7	MIN 33, VAN 14
Win chance	VAN 61%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	4	1.11	1	39%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	4	0.85	0	28%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.9	0	1.15	1	15%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	1	0.66	0	25%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.3	1	0.67	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	0	0.79	0	32%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	3	0.61	1	28%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	4	0.74	1	20%	1
VAN P. Suter	2.1	1	0.64	0	26%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.9	2	0.42	1	17%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	2	0.55	0	21%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	0	0.58	0	8%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.6	0	0.58	0	21%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.6	1	0.46	1	20%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	3	0.43	0	15%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	3	0.38	2	11%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	1	0.33	0	8%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	0	0.33	0	15%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.3	1	0.41	0	19%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.3	2	0.40	0	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	0	0.33	1	11%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	3	0.39	1	16%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.2	2	0.23	1	12%	0
MIN G. Nyquist	1.1	0	0.42	0	14%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	2	0.39	1	4%	1
VAN D. Joshua	1.1	0	0.37	0	17%	0
VAN V. Mancini	1.1	0	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	2	0.18	0	10%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.9	2	0.17	0	5%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	0.8	1	0.19	1	10%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.