Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
MIN2
VAN4
VAN beat MIN 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.16 expected goals to 2.89. MIN outshot VAN 30 to 21. A. Räty led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Tolopilo stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VAN | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 3:11MINM. Boldy0.11 xG
- 2nd 9:29VANT. Willander0.06 xG
- 2nd 11:46VANE. Pettersson0.01 xG
- 2nd 15:12VANA. Räty0.06 xG
- 3rd 5:09VANA. Räty0.25 xG
- 3rd 17:22MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.06 xG
Team Stats
MINVAN
30Shots on goal21
2.89Expected goals2.16
58Shot attempts45
275v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/3
22Hits27
13Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways12
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.89 xGVAN 2.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 2:55 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:51 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:20 | 2:49 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:33 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 1:29 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:56 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:38 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25:06 | 2:31 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:58 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:40 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 57:05 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Räty | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:09 | 1:06 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:27 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:53 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:32 | 1:07 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:34 | 2:16 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:15 | 1:36 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:15 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:28 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:54 | 0:09 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:35 | 0:51 |
| T. Willander | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:36 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:49 | 2:32 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:56 | 1:25 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:28 | 0:16 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Tolopilo | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 59:32 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello12:51K. Kaprizov14:52D. Yurov11:45
Line 2J. Ek12:22M. Boldy11:52M. Johansson13:06
Line 3V. Tarasenko11:00Y. Trenin11:28N. Sturm8:18
Line 4T. Pitlick6:57L. Ohgren8:14R. Hartman12:42
Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:24J. Middleton15:25
Pair 3Z. Bogosian14:24Z. Buium14:54
VAN
Line 1B. Boeser15:21C. Garland16:03D. Kampf14:05
Line 2E. Kane12:43K. Sherwood12:38A. Räty12:25
Line 3J. DeBrusk9:24M. Sasson11:17L. Karlsson9:22
Line 4D. O'Connor8:46A. Bains7:27J. Lekkerimäki5:44
Pair 2T. Myers14:49M. Pettersson17:54
Pair 3E. Pettersson10:16T. Willander12:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.0, VAN 2.9 | MIN 2, VAN 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.2, VAN 28.5 | MIN 30, VAN 21 |
| Win chance | MIN 52% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 1 | 1.28 | 1 | 44% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 5 | 0.99 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 3.0 | 3 | 1.03 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.6 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 1 | 0.88 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN D. Kampf | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Buium | 0.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 3 | 11% | 2 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 2% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.