Game Recap: MIN 4, VAN 2, October 25, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN4

FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

MIN beat VAN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.88 expected goals to 1.64. MIN outshot VAN 34 to 17. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. McCarron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Pickard stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	1	2	1	4
VAN	0	0	2	2

1st 18:33MINM. ShabanovPP0.26 xG
2nd 5:54MINB. Brink0.54 xG
2nd 12:55MINQ. HughesPP0.48 xG
3rd 3:38MINK. Kaprizov0.21 xG
3rd 6:24VANM. Sasson0.22 xG
3rd 16:53VANB. Boeser0.08 xG

Team Stats

MINVAN

34Shots on goal17

5.88Expected goals1.64

62Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal14

2/5Power play0/1

32Hits20

10Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways21

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 5.88 xGVAN 1.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN34 on goal, 4 scored

VAN16 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	21:53	6:18
M. Shabanov	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-2	0	16:04	6:01
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	22:40	6:18
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	5	3	0	+1	0	20:10	6:17
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	5	5	1	+1	0	14:49	0:00
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:42	0:46
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	14:22	0:24
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	12:59	0:26
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-2	0	12:31	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	12:28	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:17	0:26
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:55	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	26:10	6:17
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	20:09	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:03	0:27
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:38	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:59	0:00
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	12:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	17	15	2	.882	60:00	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:40	1:03
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	18:39	1:03
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:10	1:02
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	11:13	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	17:19	0:57
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:28	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:01	0:58
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	14:16	0:56
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	13:47	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:01	1:04
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:10	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:08	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	25:39	1:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	22:35	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:59	1:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:30	0:57
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	-1	0	14:03	0:00
G. Brisebois	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	12:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	34	30	4	.882	57:06	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Boldy13:40K. Kaprizov12:32J. Ek10:19

Line 2B. Coleman12:14M. McCarron13:32B. Brink12:56

Line 3R. Hartman11:51N. Sturm11:33T. Pitlick8:55

Line 4Y. Trenin11:33D. Yurov10:47M. Shabanov9:20

Pair 1J. Spurgeon15:52Q. Hughes17:53

Pair 2O. Maatta16:51J. Brodin15:31

Pair 3Z. Bogosian14:20M. Kiersted12:11

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:17E. Pettersson12:40D. O'Connor12:17

Line 2A. Bains10:08M. Sasson9:48L. Karlsson10:45

Line 3F. Chytil11:35J. Lekkerimäki9:29L. Ohgren11:33

Line 4J. DeBrusk12:24M. Rossi12:49B. Gallagher11:10

Pair 1Z. Buium19:02T. Willander17:28

Pair 2E. Pettersson16:12F. Hronek17:00

Pair 3L. Schenn12:08G. Brisebois11:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 12 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+108	-140	2	Under
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	-113	-118	3	Under
MIN B. Coleman	2.5	+148	–	3	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+128	-168	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-148	+114	5	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+108	-140	3	Over
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-135	+110	1	Under
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	-114	–	1	Under
VAN F. Chytil	1.5	-165	+126	3	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-105	-122	1	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	+115	–	1	Under
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-128	–	0	Under

6 of 34 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+240	-350	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+475	–	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+260	–	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+475	–	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+280	–	0	Under
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1600	–	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+430	–	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
VAN G. Brisebois	0.5	+1800	–	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1300	–	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+190	–	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+340	–	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+800	–	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-105	-120	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+525	–	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+575	–	0	Under
VAN L. Schenn	0.5	+3000	–	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+135	-180	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+420	–	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+750	–	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+370	–	1	Over
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+380	–	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+900	–	0	Under

6 of 21 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+162	–	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+230	–	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+280	–	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+320	–	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+275	–	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+225	–	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+115	–	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+290	–	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+235	–	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+136	–	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+240	–	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+175	–	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-135	–	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+340	–	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-122	–	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+235	–	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+260	–	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-210	–	1	Over
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+215	–	0	Under

7 of 21 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+126	–	2	Over
MIN M. Boldy	1.5	+164	–	1	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+172	–	2	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-128	–	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+140	–	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+115	-132	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+260	–	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+175	–	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+120	–	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+125	–	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-110	–	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+225	–	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	-104	–	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-170	–	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+125	–	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+135	–	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+134	–	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+225	–	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+245	–	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+160	–	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MIN C. Pickard	20.5	-125	-106	15	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMarco Rossi VAN Faces MIN, his team until Nov 20250 SOG
Old teamQuinn Hughes MIN Faces VAN, his team until Dec 20251 G, 1 A, 3 SOG
Old teamZeev Buium VAN Faces MIN, his team until Dec 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.6, VAN 3.0	MIN 4, VAN 2
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	MIN 30.7, VAN 25.1	MIN 34, VAN 17
Win chance	MIN 58%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.7	3	1.13	1	37%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	2	1.30	2	43%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.1	5	0.83	1	28%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	0	0.61	1	28%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.3	3	0.54	0	23%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.3	3	0.53	0	22%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.3	3	1.14	2	15%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.73	1	30%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.9	0	0.46	0	21%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.8	1	0.67	1	11%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	1	0.84	1	28%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.5	1	0.34	0	15%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	1	0.54	0	21%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	0	0.41	0	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	1	0.46	0	11%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	5	0.31	1	13%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.4	1	0.46	0	17%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	1	0.48	0	19%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	2	0.45	1	15%	1
VAN L. Ohgren	1.3	1	0.39	0	16%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	0	0.55	0	20%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.3	3	0.47	2	14%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	0	0.33	0	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.26	1	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	1	0.34	1	17%	1
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	1	0.33	0	7%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	1	0.35	0	8%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
VAN G. Brisebois	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
MIN O. Maatta	0.9	0	0.37	0	6%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	3	0.24	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	1	0.13	0	5%	0
VAN L. Schenn	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.