WPG beat MIN 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.12 expected goals to 2.13. WPG outshot MIN 35 to 27. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Connor had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. C. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 4:06MINJ. Middleton0.01 xG
- 1st 19:58WPGM. Scheifele0.02 xG
- OT 0:51WPGK. ConnorPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.13 xGWPG 2.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 2:59 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:32 | 3:14 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 3:01 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 3:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 3:03 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 2:45 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 2:54 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 2:15 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:57 | 2:37 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:41 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:35 | 0:07 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:24 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:51 | OT loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 1:59 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:59 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:59 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:08 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:58 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:58 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:58 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 1:59 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0:58 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:58 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:50 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, WPG 3.3 | MIN 1, WPG 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 29.8, WPG 30.3 | MIN 27, WPG 35 |
| Win chance | WPG 58% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 4.0 | 4 | 1.07 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.4 | 8 | 0.98 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.9 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.5 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.4 | 1 | 1.01 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.