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Game Recap
MIN4
WPG3
MIN beat WPG 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.78. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Boldy had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| WPG | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 11:36WPGJ. Morrissey0.06 xG
- 1st 18:29MINM. Boldy0.23 xG
- 2nd 7:33MINK. Kaprizov0.15 xG
- 2nd 17:56WPGK. Connor0.18 xG
- 2nd 19:57WPGM. Scheifele0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:38MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.21 xG
- OT 0:39MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
Team Stats
MINWPG
19Shots on goal26
2.65Expected goals2.78
54Shot attempts60
155v5 shots on goal20
1/4Power play0/3
19Hits16
18Blocked shots15
11Penalty minutes13
17Giveaways14
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.65 xGWPG 2.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 4:38 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 4:38 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:30 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 4:31 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:38 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:43 | 1:38 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:48 | 1:30 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:07 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:37 | 4:38 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:30 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:34 | 1:30 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 58:32 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:09 | 3:42 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:38 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:48 | 3:55 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 1:53 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:11 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:11 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 4:09 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:09 | 0:11 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 2:04 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 1:44 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 1:58 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:35 | 4:17 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:24 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:41 | 0:11 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 1:32 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 19 | 15 | 4 | .789 | 60:05 | OT loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello12:58R. Hartman13:47K. Kaprizov14:39
Line 2Y. Trenin10:37D. Yurov13:08V. Tarasenko11:33
Line 3J. Ek9:34M. Boldy10:55M. Johansson10:42
Line 4M. Foligno9:52N. Sturm8:25V. Hinostroza8:42
Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:55J. Brodin16:55
Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:01J. Middleton11:29
WPG
Line 1G. Vilardi16:19K. Connor14:43M. Scheifele14:59
Line 2T. Pearson11:20M. Barron12:23A. Lowry12:44
Line 3V. Namestnikov8:46C. Perfetti8:48A. Iafallo8:21
Line 4J. Toews9:41N. Niederreiter8:56G. Nyquist7:36
Pair 1J. Morrissey18:42D. DeMelo16:55
Pair 2D. Samberg16:34N. Pionk13:47
Pair 3L. Schenn11:18L. Stanley12:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.6, WPG 2.9 | MIN 4, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.4, WPG 29.0 | MIN 19, WPG 26 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.5 | 2 | 1.07 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.2 | 3 | 1.07 | 3 | 39% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 6 | 0.85 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.7 | 0 | 0.96 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.7 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.3 | 5 | 1.03 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 2.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.8 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.6 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.