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Game Recap
MIN2
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
WPG5

WPG beat MIN 5-2, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.49. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Skinner stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MIN2002
WPG2125
  1. 1st 1:50WPGC. Perfetti0.02 xG
  2. 1st 8:47MINK. Kaprizov0.28 xG
  3. 1st 17:54WPGM. Scheifele0.15 xG
  4. 1st 18:38MINK. Kaprizov0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 16:36WPGC. PerfettiPP0.17 xG
  6. 3rd 4:06WPGK. Connor0.12 xG
  7. 3rd 14:42WPGC. Koepke0.17 xG

Team Stats

MINWPG
21Shots on goal25
2.49Expected goals2.64
57Shot attempts56
185v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play1/2
34Hits22
17Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways13
6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.49 xGWPG 2.64 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdWPG goal, 1:50MIN goal, 8:47WPG goal, 17:54MIN goal, 18:38WPG goal, 16:36WPG goal, 4:06WPG goal, 14:42

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN20 on goal, 2 scored
WPG23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KaprizovLW202300+2020:023:01
M. BoldyLW000120+2022:203:03
J. Eriksson EkC000312+2018:163:00
M. McCarronC000022-1015:140:00
M. ShabanovRW000121-1015:063:02
B. BrinkRW000200-2214:551:00
R. HartmanRW000012-2014:500:58
B. ColemanLW000161-1014:350:57
D. YurovRW000201-1014:280:59
Y. TreninC000260-1012:280:00
R. LorenzLW000121-2011:030:00
T. PitlickC000160-108:130:00
Q. HughesD0110000028:253:11
J. BrodinD0111220021:390:00
Z. BogosianD000121-2019:500:00
O. MaattaD0000010017:270:00
D. SpacekD000200-1015:510:49
D. HuntD000023-1212:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Pickard25205.80060:00Loss
J. Wallstedt000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC123300+2016:192:31
K. ConnorLW112300+2017:262:31
C. PerfettiC202410+1216:132:31
G. VilardiC0110010018:532:31
V. NamestnikovC011031+2013:280:00
C. KoepkeLW101332+1011:400:00
A. IafalloLW000000-1015:130:00
A. LowryC000101-1015:030:00
V. BjörckC0001100014:180:00
M. BarronC000232+1014:020:00
I. RosenRW000201-1013:040:00
N. NiederreiterRW0000100212:550:00
N. PionkD022112+2023:501:36
D. SambergD000013-1024:060:00
D. DeMeloD0001220022:390:00
M. FerraroD000011+3021:400:00
H. FleuryD0003200014:190:55
T. BauerD0001310011:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner21192.90559:49Win
C. Stevenson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Boldy17:17K. Kaprizov17:01J. Ek14:39
Line 2R. Hartman13:41B. Brink13:44R. Lorenz10:52
Line 3B. Coleman13:07D. Yurov13:29M. Shabanov12:04
Line 4M. McCarron13:20Y. Trenin12:28T. Pitlick8:13
Pair 1Q. Hughes25:14J. Brodin20:23
Pair 2Z. Bogosian18:24O. Maatta14:56
Pair 3D. Hunt12:36D. Spacek15:02

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele13:48C. Perfetti13:42K. Connor12:57
Line 2G. Vilardi16:11V. Björck13:23N. Niederreiter12:55
Line 3A. Lowry13:53A. Iafallo13:55I. Rosen13:04
Line 4V. Namestnikov13:00M. Barron12:34C. Koepke10:28
Pair 1D. Samberg21:51N. Pionk20:53
Pair 2D. DeMelo19:49M. Ferraro19:40
Pair 3H. Fleury13:24T. Bauer11:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 14 overs hit (29%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WPG K. Connor3.5-108-1103Under
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+120-1353Under
MIN M. Boldy3.5+130-1541Under
WPG C. Perfetti2.5-106-1054Over
MIN J. Ek2.5-110-1053Over
MIN Q. Hughes2.5+134-1600Under
WPG A. Iafallo1.5+112-1350Under
MIN B. Coleman1.5-165+1401Under
WPG D. Samberg1.5+110-1400Under
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-150+1220Under
WPG I. Rosen1.5+105-1352Over
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-195+1453Over
WPG N. Pionk1.5-152+1351Under
MIN R. Hartman1.5-160+1300Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMIN 3.0, WPG 3.3MIN 2, WPG 5
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalMIN 27.4, WPG 28.9MIN 21, WPG 25
Win chanceWPG 55%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.531.25241%1
MIN M. Boldy3.310.99034%0
MIN K. Kaprizov2.931.14240%2
MIN J. Ek2.830.74027%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.440.75226%2
MIN Q. Hughes2.301.06115%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.231.24338%1
MIN B. Coleman2.010.46020%0
WPG N. Pionk1.910.50212%0
MIN R. Hartman1.900.49020%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.700.80129%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.600.43020%0
WPG D. Samberg1.500.3206%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.400.40017%0
WPG V. Björck1.410.39017%0
WPG M. Barron1.420.33014%0
MIN M. McCarron1.300.27012%0
WPG C. Koepke1.330.26112%1
WPG M. Ferraro1.300.3208%0
MIN M. Shabanov1.310.44014%0
MIN J. Brodin1.210.2916%0
WPG A. Lowry1.210.40017%0
WPG I. Rosen1.120.26013%0
WPG V. Namestnikov1.100.34113%0
MIN B. Brink1.120.36012%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.010.3207%0
MIN O. Maatta1.000.3606%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.020.23010%0
MIN D. Yurov0.920.31012%0
WPG H. Fleury0.930.1604%0
MIN Z. Bogosian0.810.1604%0
MIN D. Hunt0.600.1402%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.