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Game Recap
MTL4
BOS6
BOS beat MTL 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 2.22. C. Koepke led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Swayman stopped 20 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| BOS | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 8:26MTLB. GallagherPP0.11 xG
- 1st 11:04BOSC. McAvoyPP0.05 xG
- 1st 12:18MTLC. Caufield0.04 xG
- 1st 13:24BOSM. Kastelic0.08 xG
- 1st 18:23BOSE. Lindholm0.03 xG
- 2nd 15:56BOSD. Pastrnak0.17 xG
- 2nd 16:51BOSC. Koepke0.16 xG
- 3rd 9:05MTLJ. Anderson0.14 xG
- 3rd 15:43MTLB. Gallagher0.20 xG
- 3rd 16:00BOSM. Kastelic0.02 xG
Team Stats
MTLBOS
24Shots on goal29
2.22Expected goals3.55
57Shot attempts61
185v5 shots on goal22
1/6Power play1/5
23Hits25
16Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes12
17Giveaways17
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.22 xGBOS 3.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gallagher | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 3:35 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:41 | 3:34 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:02 | 7:28 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:14 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:01 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 7:29 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:50 | 7:24 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:23 | 7:27 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:49 | 3:51 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:15 |
| A. Barré-Boulet | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:58 | 3:39 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 22:48 | 5:26 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:19 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 26:08 | 7:41 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:06 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Primeau | 29 | 23 | 6 | .793 | 57:11 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:27 | 5:10 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 5:22 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:16 | 4:53 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:06 | 4:59 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 20:35 | 2:27 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 2:20 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:31 | 2:04 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:49 | 2:44 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:05 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 22:56 | 5:16 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:02 | 2:25 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:10 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.5, BOS 3.6 | MTL 4, BOS 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.6, BOS 32.0 | MTL 24, BOS 29 |
| Win chance | BOS 68% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.9 | 6 | 1.37 | 2 | 50% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.6 | 1 | 0.82 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 2.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 4 | 0.34 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 2.0 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 2.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 3 | 0.23 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Barré-Boulet | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 3 | 7% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.