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Game Recap
MTL3
BOS6
BOS beat MTL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.74 expected goals to 1.88. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Swayman stopped 25 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| BOS | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 11:45BOSC. McAvoy0.09 xG
- 1st 12:40BOSD. Pastrnak0.05 xG
- 1st 12:55BOSC. Coyle0.13 xG
- 2nd 0:38BOSC. McAvoySH0.11 xG
- 2nd 5:42MTLC. Caufield0.20 xG
- 3rd 0:21BOSC. Coyle0.18 xG
- 3rd 2:28MTLE. Heineman0.05 xG
- 3rd 6:38MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
- 3rd 17:46BOSC. KoepkeEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
MTLBOS
28Shots on goal30
1.88Expected goals3.74
57Shot attempts57
225v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/2
18Hits26
12Blocked shots20
16Penalty minutes16
16Giveaways10
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 1.88 xGBOS 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:41 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 2:42 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 1:19 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 1:19 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:40 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:44 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:18 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:05 | 2:16 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 | 22:39 | 1:30 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 12 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:01 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:30 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Primeau | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 59:28 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Coyle | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:29 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:07 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 12 | 11:43 | 0:05 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:25 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 2:27 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:27 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:25 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:10 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:57 | 2:23 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:25 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 1:31 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 23:00 | 2:29 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:11 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:00 | 1:26 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.4, BOS 3.4 | MTL 3, BOS 6 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.2, BOS 30.3 | MTL 28, BOS 30 |
| Win chance | BOS 67% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.1 | 5 | 1.28 | 1 | 46% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 5 | 0.61 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.6 | 1 | 0.97 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.1 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.0 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 4 | 0.70 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 4 | 0.69 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. McLaughlin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.42 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Oesterle | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.