Game Recap: MTL 6, BOS 2, December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL6

FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

BOS2

MTL beat BOS 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 2.39. L. Hutson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). E. Lindholm had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Fowler stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	1	4	6
BOS	2	0	0	2

1st 11:08MTLS. Blais0.07 xG
1st 12:25BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.18 xG
1st 19:42BOSA. SteevesPP0.12 xG
2nd 1:58MTLI. Demidov0.29 xG
3rd 7:04MTLZ. Bolduc0.10 xG
3rd 8:43MTLC. CaufieldPP0.47 xG
3rd 10:09MTLN. SuzukiPP0.12 xG
3rd 12:22MTLJ. Slafkovský0.10 xG

Team Stats

MTLBOS

29Shots on goal28

3.49Expected goals2.39

59Shot attempts52

215v5 shots on goal18

2/7Power play1/5

23Hits27

18Blocked shots16

32Penalty minutes34

11Giveaways19

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.49 xGBOS 2.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL29 on goal, 6 scored

BOS27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	+1	0	23:26	8:59
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	16	18:19	7:39
I. Demidov	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	2	14:07	5:17
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	18:51	7:15
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	17:49	6:07
S. Blais	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	9:10	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	17:01	3:57
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:29	0:23
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	15:24	4:50
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7	14:03	2:19
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:36	0:06
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	4:20	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	3	3	0	0	2	0	0	24:04	5:26
L. Hutson	D	0	3	3	2	0	0	+4	0	22:44	6:23
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	0	7	-1	0	23:34	0:44
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	0	20:07	0:05
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	10:44	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	5	7:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	28	26	2	.929	59:37	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	20:14	5:36
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	2	14:34	4:40
A. Steeves	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	4	10:44	3:43
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	10:24	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	7	1	1	-1	0	18:04	4:11
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	16:40	5:02
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:17	4:20
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:10	3:13
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:36	4:31
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:01
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:50	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	7	10:23	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	16:56	2:09
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	26:44	3:59
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-2	0	20:17	0:06
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	19:43	2:49
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	17	17:43	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	10:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	29	23	6	.793	60:00	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki12:16C. Caufield10:42Z. Bolduc11:41

Line 2J. Slafkovský10:34I. Demidov8:18O. Kapanen7:54

Line 3P. Danault9:41J. Anderson7:28A. Texier4:20

Line 4B. Gallagher10:17S. Blais9:10J. Veleno8:03

Pair 1M. Matheson14:23N. Dobson13:22

Pair 2A. Carrier14:13L. Hutson14:11

Pair 3J. Struble10:44A. Xhekaj6:53

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm11:32D. Pastrnak13:12M. Geekie11:38

Line 2C. Mittelstadt10:00P. Zacha9:28V. Arvidsson9:54

Line 3T. Jeannot7:26M. Kastelic8:11F. Minten7:09

Line 4M. Khusnutdinov6:34A. Steeves6:38S. Kuraly8:17

Pair 1H. Lindholm13:36A. Peeke14:10

Pair 2C. McAvoy14:07N. Zadorov11:26

Pair 3V. Kolyachonok10:33M. Lohrei10:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, BOS 3.1	MTL 6, BOS 2
Total goals	5.9	8
Shots on goal	MTL 25.9, BOS 27.0	MTL 29, BOS 28
Win chance	BOS 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	2	1.26	1	42%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	5	0.80	1	31%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	2	0.57	1	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	3	0.86	0	33%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.94	2	27%	1
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	0	0.54	3	10%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	2	0.62	2	21%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.9	2	0.48	0	19%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	7	0.68	0	23%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	1	0.63	0	11%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.7	0	0.44	0	9%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.7	2	0.43	1	20%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	3	0.46	0	9%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.67	0	21%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.6	1	0.41	0	17%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	2	0.87	3	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	3	0.35	0	18%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	0	0.33	0	13%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.5	0	0.33	0	15%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	1	0.72	2	18%	1
BOS A. Steeves	1.4	2	0.44	1	20%	1
BOS S. Kuraly	1.4	2	0.29	0	13%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.4	1	0.44	0	14%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.36	0	9%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	1	0.35	0	16%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	1	0.56	0	19%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.31	0	5%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	1	0.33	1	6%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	1	0.29	1	11%	1
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	2	0.11	0	4%	0
BOS V. Kolyachonok	0.7	1	0.21	0	6%	0
MTL S. Blais	0.7	1	0.21	1	6%	1
MTL J. Struble	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.