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Game Recap
MTL3
BOS4
BOS beat MTL 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 2.96. C. Caufield scored three for MTL. C. Caufield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Swayman stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 6:36MTLC. Caufield0.24 xG
- 2nd 1:45BOSV. ArvidssonPP0.38 xG
- 2nd 7:37MTLC. CaufieldPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 9:46BOSM. GeekiePP0.22 xG
- 2nd 13:29MTLC. CaufieldPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 13:55BOSF. Minten0.10 xG
- 3rd 14:07BOSM. GeekiePP0.05 xG
Team Stats
MTLBOS
25Shots on goal20
2.96Expected goals3.71
57Shot attempts51
175v5 shots on goal12
2/3Power play3/4
16Hits21
10Blocked shots14
13Penalty minutes11
18Giveaways17
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.96 xGBOS 3.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:54 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 3:59 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 3:53 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 3:55 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:32 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:28 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:33 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:17 | 0:34 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 7:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:32 | 4:02 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:58 | 0:25 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 20 | 16 | 4 | .800 | 57:24 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:24 |
| F. Minten | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:37 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:52 | 3:32 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:38 | 3:28 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:36 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:40 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:26 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:01 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:40 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:43 | 3:27 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:30 | 0:05 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:44 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 59:36 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki15:24A. Texier15:26C. Caufield13:19
Line 2J. Slafkovský13:59I. Demidov13:14O. Kapanen12:47
Line 3P. Danault10:59J. Anderson11:39B. Gallagher10:07
Pair 1M. Matheson19:53N. Dobson19:12
Pair 3A. Carrier13:38A. Xhekaj9:19
BOS
Line 1V. Arvidsson14:42C. Mittelstadt15:05P. Zacha13:41
Line 2E. Lindholm14:30D. Pastrnak14:49M. Geekie14:01
Line 3T. Jeannot9:57M. Kastelic9:27S. Kuraly8:55
Line 4F. Minten11:17A. Steeves7:55M. Khusnutdinov10:27
Pair 1A. Peeke17:22N. Zadorov12:41
Pair 2C. McAvoy19:51J. Aspirot14:18
Pair 3H. Lindholm18:23M. Lohrei14:44
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.2, BOS 3.3 | MTL 3, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.2, BOS 26.9 | MTL 25, BOS 20 |
| Win chance | BOS 52% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.4 | 6 | 1.30 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 6 | 0.80 | 3 | 32% | 3 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 1 | 0.90 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 3 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.