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Game Recap
MTL5
FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night
BOS2

MTL beat BOS 5-2, with the chances close: 3.40 expected goals to 3.08. C. Mittelstadt led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Borgen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Fowler stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL2305
BOS0112
  1. 1st 2:34MTLK. Dach0.08 xG
  2. 1st 8:36MTLJ. Anderson0.20 xG
  3. 2nd 4:24MTLJ. Evans0.21 xG
  4. 2nd 8:14MTLC. Caufield0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 14:15MTLP. Danault0.02 xG
  6. 2nd 14:53BOSC. Mittelstadt0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 0:53BOSC. Mittelstadt0.02 xG

Team Stats

MTLBOS
31Shots on goal32
3.40Expected goals3.08
48Shot attempts63
215v5 shots on goal30
0/4Power play0/1
17Hits20
23Blocked shots6
2Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways18
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.40 xGBOS 3.08 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdMTL goal, 2:34MTL goal, 8:36MTL goal, 4:24MTL goal, 8:14MTL goal, 14:15BOS goal, 14:53BOS goal, 0:53

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL31 on goal, 5 scored
BOS31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EvansC112200+1016:480:16
J. AndersonRW112131+1012:430:00
C. CaufieldRW1014000018:064:08
A. NewhookC0113100015:413:48
Z. BolducRW011102+1015:213:11
P. DanaultC101311+1014:310:02
K. DachC101212+2013:462:18
J. SlafkovskýLW0003120020:024:11
N. SuzukiC0000000019:554:12
A. TexierLW000411+1014:483:36
O. KapanenC000212+1013:093:20
C. KreiderLW000100+109:081:27
M. MathesonD011103+3021:111:19
A. CarrierD011011+1017:500:00
A. XhekajD011141+1015:210:00
L. HutsonD000201-1221:334:41
N. DobsonD000111-1019:073:19
K. GuhleD000025+3019:000:12
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler32302.93860:00Win
J. Dobes000–0:00

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. LindholmC022211+2016:151:05
C. MittelstadtC202300+2214:210:51
J. PeterkaRW000210-3018:010:53
P. ZachaC000340-2018:001:07
D. PastrnakRW000320-3017:081:10
M. KhusnutdinovC000000+2016:500:00
F. MintenC000120-3015:570:53
T. JeannotLW0000100212:480:00
M. GeekieC000010-2012:011:09
M. KastelicC0003320011:570:00
M. EyssimontC000300-2210:500:00
M. PoitrasC000210009:260:37
N. ZadorovD011210+1021:000:01
W. BorgenD0114210020:400:12
C. McAvoyD000010-2022:261:07
H. LindholmD000201-2220:530:00
M. LohreiD000000-2017:530:55
F. BrunetD000201-1015:340:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman17134.76528:14Loss
M. DiPietro14131.92931:46

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:43J. Slafkovský15:51C. Caufield13:58
Line 2J. Anderson12:25J. Evans14:51C. Kreider7:41
Line 3A. Texier11:12Z. Bolduc12:10P. Danault12:51
Line 4K. Dach11:24A. Newhook11:34O. Kapanen9:49
Pair 1M. Matheson18:46K. Guhle17:52
Pair 2A. Carrier16:46A. Xhekaj15:15
Pair 3L. Hutson16:52N. Dobson15:00

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:58J. Peterka17:08P. Zacha15:43
Line 2C. Mittelstadt13:30M. Khusnutdinov13:49E. Lindholm12:50
Line 3M. Eyssimont10:50F. Minten11:59M. Geekie10:52
Line 4T. Jeannot9:32M. Poitras8:49M. Kastelic8:52
Pair 1H. Lindholm18:19C. McAvoy17:15
Pair 2N. Zadorov17:04W. Borgen17:09
Pair 3M. Lohrei15:31F. Brunet14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield3.5+132-1704Over
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5-105-1103Under
BOS J. Peterka2.5+150-1782Under
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+140-1603Over
BOS M. Geekie2.5+144-1900Under
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+122-1400Under
BOS C. McAvoy1.5-115-1050Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.5+150–3Over
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-160+1402Over
BOS F. Minten1.5-110-1101Under
MTL J. Anderson1.5+115-1501Under
MTL L. Hutson1.5+100-1102Over
BOS M. Eyssimont1.5-125-1053Over
MTL N. Dobson1.5-140+1251Under
BOS P. Zacha1.5-150+1263Over
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5-120-1041Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.0, BOS 3.3MTL 5, BOS 2
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalMTL 26.4, BOS 28.3MTL 31, BOS 32
Win chanceBOS 55%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.531.23038%0
MTL C. Caufield2.840.76133%1
BOS J. Peterka2.220.69027%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.200.90027%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.130.64023%0
MTL N. Dobson1.910.47011%0
BOS P. Zacha1.930.76025%0
BOS M. Geekie1.900.70028%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.820.66224%0
BOS M. Eyssimont1.830.26013%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.700.67012%0
BOS F. Minten1.710.47020%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.610.46119%0
MTL A. Texier1.640.39015%0
MTL L. Hutson1.620.78011%0
MTL J. Anderson1.510.33217%1
MTL A. Newhook1.530.46120%0
MTL M. Matheson1.510.3818%0
MTL P. Danault1.330.40114%1
MTL C. Kreider1.310.41019%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.320.33016%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.330.53218%2
BOS H. Lindholm1.220.3106%0
MTL K. Guhle1.200.3407%0
MTL K. Dach1.120.30112%1
BOS N. Zadorov1.120.2515%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.100.3809%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.030.23011%0
BOS W. Borgen1.040.2315%0
MTL J. Evans1.020.34212%1
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.900.31013%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.900.23010%0
BOS M. Poitras0.920.2809%0
BOS F. Brunet0.820.1902%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.710.1013%0
MTL A. Carrier0.700.2515%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.