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Game Recap
MTL7
BUF5
MTL beat BUF 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 1.80. N. Suzuki led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). E. Heineman had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Montembeault stopped 4 of 4.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 4:14MTLJ. Anderson0.25 xG
- 1st 4:42BUFT. Thompson0.09 xG
- 2nd 5:26MTLC. CaufieldPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 5:45BUFD. Cozens0.07 xG
- 2nd 6:44BUFP. Krebs0.17 xG
- 2nd 19:13MTLN. Suzuki0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:35MTLN. Suzuki0.10 xG
- 3rd 1:58BUFR. DahlinPP0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:51BUFJ. Peterka0.07 xG
- 3rd 10:50MTLE. Heineman0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:58MTLC. CaufieldPP0.54 xG
- 3rd 19:11MTLC. DvorakEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
MTLBUF
23Shots on goal18
3.77Expected goals1.80
45Shot attempts44
135v5 shots on goal10
2/6Power play1/4
16Hits23
14Blocked shots13
10Penalty minutes12
13Giveaways12
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.77 xGBUF 1.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:00 | 6:24 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:17 | 6:12 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 6:10 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:51 | 6:05 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:25 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:26 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 3:26 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 3:23 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 3:28 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:29 | 3:32 |
| L. Condotta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:02 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 3:47 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:34 | 5:56 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:17 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:11 | 0:27 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Primeau | 14 | 9 | 5 | .643 | 43:43 | |
| S. Montembeault | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 16:09 | Win |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:20 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 3:45 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 3:47 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:13 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:55 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:40 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:02 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 2:29 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:08 | 2:58 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:08 | 2:12 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:24 | 4:03 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 22:41 | 2:12 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 24:31 | 2:28 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:45 | 0:02 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 39:46 | |
| D. Levi | 4 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 18:50 | Loss |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, BUF 3.7 | MTL 7, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.8, BUF 32.9 | MTL 23, BUF 18 |
| Win chance | BUF 63% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.5 | 1 | 1.08 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.9 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 1 | 0.97 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 4 | 0.79 | 4 | 26% | 2 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 3 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 0 | 0.52 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.5 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL L. Condotta | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.