MTL beat BUF 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.93 expected goals to 3.72. BUF outshot MTL 36 to 26. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Samuelsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Dobes stopped 33 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| BUF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:00BUFJ. Zucker0.10 xG
- 1st 6:31MTLC. Caufield0.28 xG
- 1st 7:45BUFJ. Doan0.03 xG
- 1st 7:54MTLA. Texier0.08 xG
- 1st 10:15BUFK. Helenius0.12 xG
- 2nd 8:01MTLJ. Anderson0.11 xG
- 2nd 16:15MTLJ. Evans0.51 xG
- 2nd 17:33MTLN. SuzukiPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 3:32MTLI. DemidovPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.93 xGBUF 3.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 1:33 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:17 | 1:33 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:33 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:33 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:33 | 1:33 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 26:18 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 3:01 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:58 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 1:01 |
| K. Helenius | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:42 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 21:04 | 2:59 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 1:35 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:05 | 3:01 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:59 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:42 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 1:02 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27:28 | 3:13 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:42 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:47 | 0:05 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 40:00 | Loss |
| A. Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 13:39 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
BUF
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.1, BUF 3.4 | MTL 6, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.6, BUF 28.7 | MTL 26, BUF 36 |
| Win chance | BUF 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.8 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 1 | 1.02 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.2 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.0 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.7 | 5 | 0.69 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF K. Helenius | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.6 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 5 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.0 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF L. Schenn | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.5 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.