Game Recap: MTL 3, BUF 2 (OT), May 18, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL3

Final/OTMon, May 18, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

BUF2

MTL beat BUF 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.63 expected goals to 4.36. BUF outshot MTL 39 to 25. J. Dobes stopped 37 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	2	0	0	1	3
BUF	0	1	1	0	2

1st 4:30MTLP. Danault0.20 xG
1st 14:29MTLZ. BolducPP0.13 xG
2nd 13:19BUFJ. Greenway0.14 xG
3rd 6:27BUFR. Dahlin0.05 xG
OT 11:22MTLA. Newhook0.01 xG

Team Stats

MTLBUF

25Shots on goal39

2.63Expected goals4.36

58Shot attempts90

245v5 shots on goal38

1/1Power play0/1

28Hits21

22Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways16

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.63 xGBUF 4.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 3 scored

BUF38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	29:30	1:55
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	19:52	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:51	0:00
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	2	17:16	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	0	9:11	0:19
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	23:07	1:49
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	22:33	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	22:19	1:36
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	0	21:16	1:35
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	17:10	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	8:58	0:20
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:45	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	0	31:17	1:55
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	0	0	27:03	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	3	4	0	0	22:52	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	31:28	0:06
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	26:30	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	1:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	39	37	2	.949	71:22	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:39	0:44
J. Greenway	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	11:11	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	10:42	0:01
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	24:07	0:52
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	21:56	0:49
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	21:37	1:01
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	5	2	2	+1	0	21:25	1:08
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:12	1:09
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	18:38	0:52
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	16:39	1:07
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	16:37	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	11:13	0:07
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0	33:11	1:12
O. Power	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	28:47	0:10
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	28:35	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	28:18	0:48
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:43	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	25	22	3	.880	71:22	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki26:59J. Slafkovský21:18C. Caufield19:41

Line 2J. Evans21:07I. Demidov20:43A. Newhook18:23

Line 3P. Danault17:16J. Anderson16:40A. Texier17:51

Line 4K. Dach8:38Z. Bolduc8:52O. Kapanen4:45

Pair 1M. Matheson29:51A. Carrier25:41

Pair 2N. Dobson26:01L. Hutson29:22

Pair 3K. Guhle22:15A. Xhekaj1:52

BUF

Line 1Z. Benson23:15T. Thompson21:07J. Norris20:36

Line 2A. Tuch18:22R. McLeod19:19J. Doan17:46

Line 3J. Quinn18:03K. Helenius16:37J. Zucker15:32

Line 4J. Greenway10:49P. Krebs11:06B. Malenstyn9:44

Pair 1M. Samuelsson28:13R. Dahlin31:59

Pair 2B. Byram27:30O. Power27:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.1, BUF 3.5	MTL 3, BUF 2
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MTL 25.3, BUF 29.7	MTL 25, BUF 39
Win chance	BUF 57%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	5	1.00	0	40%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	5	0.82	0	35%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	5	0.83	0	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	5	0.86	1	18%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.3	2	0.65	0	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.3	3	0.75	0	26%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	3	0.66	0	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	1.00	1	29%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	2	0.69	0	22%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	1	0.48	0	10%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.8	0	0.71	0	20%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.7	0	0.53	0	22%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.7	2	0.47	1	21%	1
BUF K. Helenius	1.7	3	0.41	0	16%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	1	0.61	0	27%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	1	0.87	1	11%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	1	0.39	0	8%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.48	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	3	0.33	0	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	1	0.40	1	8%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	2	0.40	1	9%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	0	0.37	1	15%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.39	0	13%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	2	0.55	1	17%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	2	0.35	1	13%	1
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.1	2	0.34	1	15%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.42	0	13%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.0	1	0.28	1	6%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	1	0.27	0	14%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	1	0.30	0	12%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	3	0.23	0	3%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.8	2	0.20	1	9%	1
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	1	0.29	1	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.16	1	7%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.7	0	0.19	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	0	0.07	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.