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Game Recap
MTL1
CAR4
CAR beat MTL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.44 expected goals to 1.65. CAR outshot MTL 24 to 15. J. Blake led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). F. Andersen stopped 14 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:23MTLJ. Anderson0.13 xG
- 1st 0:41CARJ. Blake0.16 xG
- 2nd 13:46CART. HallPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 16:10CARS. Aho0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:00CARA. SvechnikovEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
MTLCAR
15Shots on goal24
1.65Expected goals3.44
35Shot attempts63
155v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play1/3
22Hits16
22Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways15
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 1.65 xGCAR 3.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:58 | 0:08 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:49 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:07 | 3:49 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:32 | 2:12 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:07 | 2:14 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:46 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:10 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:46 | 1:41 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 24:33 | 2:15 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 1:45 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:51 | 0:11 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 23 | 21 | 3 | .913 | 58:49 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:58 | 3:35 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:47 | 3:35 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:49 | 3:35 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 2:45 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:39 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:01 | 0:49 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:49 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:49 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:11 | 0:49 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 3:35 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 15 | 14 | 1 | .933 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.6, CAR 3.9 | MTL 1, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 23.5, CAR 33.9 | MTL 15, CAR 24 |
| Win chance | CAR 69% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 4 | 1.08 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 3 | 20% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.1 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.8 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.8 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.