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Game Recap
MTL7
CAR5
MTL beat CAR 7-5 despite fewer good chances: 2.70 expected goals to 3.34. S. Aho led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). J. Dobes stopped 20 of 25.
Team Stats
MTLCAR
23Shots on goal25
2.70Expected goals3.34
42Shot attempts54
195v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play2/3
26Hits18
15Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways19
4Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.70 xGCAR 3.34 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 1:02 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:08 | 0:55 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:52 |
| S. Blais | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:08 | 1:03 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:58 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:56 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:57 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:04 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 24:33 | 1:05 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:49 | 1:06 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:02 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:50 | 2:16 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:16 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 2:10 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 2:52 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:48 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:36 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:36 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:06 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:06 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:08 | 2:16 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:18 | 0:42 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:06 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 22 | 16 | 6 | .727 | 58:20 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki16:56C. Caufield15:01A. Texier14:13
Line 2J. Slafkovský16:57I. Demidov13:33O. Kapanen15:32
Line 3B. Gallagher12:25J. Veleno11:50S. Blais10:05
Line 4P. Danault13:16Z. Bolduc11:24J. Anderson7:43
Pair 1A. Carrier19:54L. Hutson21:27
Pair 2N. Dobson20:27A. Engstrom13:04
Pair 3J. Struble18:04A. Xhekaj13:54
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven16:19J. Blake15:44T. Hall15:30
Line 2J. Staal14:02W. Carrier13:54J. Martinook13:43
Line 3S. Aho12:41A. Svechnikov13:05N. Ehlers12:51
Line 4M. Jankowski10:20E. Robinson10:53J. Kotkaniemi10:23
Pair 1J. Chatfield20:42K. Miller22:19
Pair 2S. Walker18:18A. Nikishin18:06
Pair 3M. Reilly13:04J. Nystrom13:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.7, CAR 3.3 | MTL 7, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 22.4, CAR 31.1 | MTL 23, CAR 25 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 5 | 0.82 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 3 | 0.97 | 5 | 34% | 2 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.6 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.6 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL A. Engstrom | 0.5 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.